Edwards has shot at erasing bad memory

We all knew the drill. Fans of Carl Edwards knew it all too well.

In one of the best NASCAR Sprint Cup title fights ever witnessed, Edwards and Tony Stewart couldn't have been any closer as the season finale happened at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 20, 2011.

When they left Phoenix, Edwards had a three-point lead over Stewart. It was hanging by a thread, and Carl needed one more performance to hold the Sprint Cup championship trophy.
As things turned out, we got...a tie.

Wait. Ties happen, but you have to break them. So when all was said and done, Stewart's five Chase wins netted him his third championship. Edwards? He only had one.

And now, five years later to the very day, Edwards gets another shot, and it will be much different this time around.

With his win at the multi-hour rain-delayed AAA Texas 500 that finished 41 laps short of the full distance, Edwards has his chance to erase the sadness, the disappointment of his battle with Tony Stewart ending in a tie.

Unlike 2011, Edwards will have three drivers to worry about. Jimmie Johnson is already in, and two more will be joining them in the race for the 2016 Sprint Cup title.

Five years ago, there were mind games. Stewart said he wasn't worthy of being in the Chase when it began, but he went out and won the first two, then closed with three wins in the last four.

The duel between Smoke and Edwards was off the charts in competitive goodness. Here's how they finished in the final three weeks:
-Texas: Stewart won, Edwards second.
-Phoenix: Edwards second, Stewart third (Tony won extra bonus point for leading the most laps).
-Homestead: Stewart won, Edwards second. Stewart gets tiebreaker to crown him as champion.
Stewart will watch from his driver's seat as he races for the final time in the No. 14 for his own Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. And it won't be complicated.

Just win, baby. That, or keep the other challengers behind you.

We have documented here that both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch won at Homestead to claim the Sprint Cup as their own in this system of the Chase. Winning mattered in 2011, and it matters even more now.

But who will join Johnson and Edwards as the other members of the third Championship Four at Homestead? You'd think Harvick would find a way to get in with how much he's owned Phoenix of late -- six wins in the last eight trips with 994 laps led in the last five.

All good streaks must end sometime, but Harvick isn't one for following scripts. That's why he'll be dangerous.

And if we grouped the final four for Homestead right now, the battle is tighter than a car that won't turn anywhere at any track without serious steering wheel abuse.
With Johnson already locked in to Homestead, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch would be the last two who would race for the crown. Lurking around the next curve and eating at their rear bumpers, Matt Kenseth is one point behind and Denny Hamlin is two points back.

And all that talk about Joe Gibbs Racing making Homestead their own championship battle ground would be as shocking as what happened to Hillary Clinton last night.
Past performance is no guarantee for future results.

-On the XFINITY side, the Saturday night race at Phoenix will be one worth watching because it's anyone's guess who's worthy of the Championship Four.
Daniel Suarez, Elliot Sadler, Erik Jones and Blake Koch are in at the moment, but Justin Allgaier is within a point of Koch and Ryan Reed is only five points behind.

A win by a series regular will change everything, but we haven't had one since Suarez at Dover three weeks ago. Thank goodness for the rule changes that will limit Cup drivers' presence in these races starting next season.

-For the Camping World Truck Series, Johnny Sauter has come into this round of the inaugural Chase and stolen all of William Byron's thunder. Byron is still out in front, but the separation from him to Timothy Peters -- who is on the outside looking in -- is exactly five points.

Between Byron, Christopher Bell, Matt Crafton and Peters, it's conceivable any one of them could see their title dreams denied after Phoenix on Friday night.

Let's go racing, folks. The boogity is happening all on its own.

Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @TommyZee81 or @Tomzsports. Email him at tominator19@yahoo.com.

THIS WEEK'S RACES
Phoenix International Raceway (1-mile oval), Avondale, Arizona.
-SPRINT CUP: Can-Am 500, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET, 11:30 a.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 500 kilometers (312 miles), 312 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-XFINITY SERIES: Ticket Galaxy 200, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 200 miles, 200 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Lucas Oil 150, Friday, 8:30 p.m ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 150 miles, 150 laps.
2015 champion: Timothy Peters

While we were away...

Yeah, it's been two weeks since something's been posted on this blog. Between my high-school class reunion and real-life, gotta-get-paid-somehow responsibility (such a concept...I know), I've been a total slacker around here for you, the race fan. That sucks.

Time to get the car out of the garage from its repairs and get back in the game. Here's what I missed.
On the Sprint Cup side of the ledger, the Round of 12 opened with Jimmie Johnson -- you remember him, right? Mr. Six-time Champ? -- winning at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Bank of America 500, which became a daytime race due to the Hurricane Matthew rainout.
Johnson won for the 78th time in his career and earned his spot in the Round of 8 for the first time. In his quest to join Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt with title No. 7, the "new" Chase has been his undoing in the last two years.
In 2014, Johnson was 40th at Kansas, 17th at Charlotte, and 24th at Talladega and was gone in Round 2.
Last year, Johnson was gone after the opening round thanks to a 41st-place finish at Dover.
There are no worries now. So far, with the Chase halfway done, Johnson has been 12th, eighth, seventh, first at Charlotte (for the first time since the 2014 Coca-Cola 600) and fourth at Kansas.
Everything will start from zero at Martinsville next weekend, but there seems to be a sense that Johnson has finally gotten his Chase groove back. Be watchful of him the rest of the way.
Kevin Harvick is the second driver to join Johnson in the "semifinal" round of the Chase after he held on to win at Kansas.
In the weirdest of coincidence, both Johnson and Harvick qualified 11th and came away with victories. If it happens again Sunday at Talladega, we can say Halloween came a full week early because NASCAR's biggest track carries enough weirdness in it already.
Among those on the bubble, Joey Logano and Austin Dillon are in a flat-footed tie for the final transfer spot. Denny Hamlin is only six points behind and Brad Keselowski sits seven off the pace.
Will any of them break through and advance? I can honestly say I have no idea.
Logano, Hamlin and Keselowski all have wins at Talladega. If Dillon breaks through, the ghost of Dale Sr. will certainly rejoice.
And as for Chase Elliott, it's Victory Lane or bust. He's 25 points behind.
For the XFINITY Series, they're on a three-week break with the Chase field already down to the Round of 8.
The first two races had actual series regulars earn victories -- Elliott Sadler at Kentucky and Daniel Suarez at Dover -- but Cup regulars have won the last two since. Logano ruled Charlotte and Kyle Busch (yawn) dominated again at Kansas.
For the season, the owner of 85 wins in the No. 2 series has nine this season in 16 starts. Here are some more stats that have fans up in arms and thumbing their noses at Saturday races.
Busch has started from the pole in seven of the nine races he's won in 2016. He's led a mind-blowing 67 percent of the laps he's run -- 1,862 out of a possible 2,795.
In total, Sprint Cup regulars have won 19 of the 30 XFINITY races on the season.
While it's nice that no Cup regulars will be allowed to compete in the season finale at Homestead, NASCAR is taking a much harder look at how it can limit the number of XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series races they can compete in starting in 2017.
As NASCAR vice president Steve O'Donnell said on SiriusXM radio Monday, "We’ve heard the fans … They like seeing those drivers come up through the ranks and it’s our job to make sure that Xfinity is the name where names are made."
It's about time it's being addressed. O'Donnell added an announcement on any potential changes is still to come.
Kansas was the first race of the Round of 8 in the XFINITY Chase, and Sadler and Suarez are tied for the top spot. We'll talk about the rest of the field in greater depth after they run at Texas.
The Camping World Truck Series has been idle since Tyler Reddick denied BK Racing teammate Daniel Hemric and won at Las Vegas. Heading to Talladega, Hemric is in absolute must-win mode as he sits 15 points behind Johnny Sauter for the last transfer spot to the Round of 6.
John Hunter Nemechek is tied with Hemric, but the task isn't quite as daunting as it may seem. The distance to fourth-place Ben Kennedy is only 18 points, and it's 25 to second-place Christopher Bell.
The right moves will make all the difference. The wrong ones will lead to the end of a championship dream.
Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @TommyZee81 or @Tomzsports. Email tominator19@yahoo.com.
THIS WEEK'S RACES
Talladega Superspeedway (2.66-mile D-shaped oval), Talladega, Alabama
-SPRINT CUP: Alabama 500, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 500 miles, 188 laps.
2015 champion: Joey Logano
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Fred's 250 powered by Coca-Cola, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT, Fox. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 250 miles, 94 laps.
2015 champion: Timothy Peters.
-XFINITY SERIES: Off until Nov. 5 for the O'Reilly Auto Parts Challenge at Texas Motor Speedway.

Truex wins again, first four eliminated

After all the rain fell at Dover International Speedway over the course of the weekend, the first elimination race of the 2016 Chase had the look and feel of ... mystery.

With a green track, it didn't give off a clear advantage to one particular team, especially with limited practice time.

When the Sprint Cup race -- the Citizen Soldier 400 -- rolled around, Martin Truex Jr. sounded off loud and clear his championship aspirations.

Truex won for the second time in his career at his "home" track -- he calls Mayetta, N.J. home -- and won for the second time in the first round of the Chase.

The results speak volumes how the one-car team with the Joe Gibbs Racing technical alliance is planning on being a major factor.

In picking up his fourth win of the year (matching Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch at the top of the charts), Truex led 187 laps, including 106 of the final 114.

Chase time is definitely winning time, and Truex is getting pretty good at giving himself a chance as a title contender. Last year, he won at Pocono and stayed consistent to reach the Championship Four. As we head to Round 2 this week, who knows how many more races the 78 will win?

We're heading to Charlotte Motor Speedway, where Truex absolutely demoralized the rest of the field, leading 392 of the 400 laps to win the Coca-Cola 600. It's 100 miles less this time around, but there's no reason to think a repeat performance -- or something very close -- isn't in the cards again.

And with the third Chase race in the books, the first four who had title hopes saw them come to an end. We nearly had a stunning development along the way.

Kevin Harvick, who won the first elimination-style Chase in its debut two years ago, was nearly eliminated after Dover. He had early issues in the No. 4, went to the garage for repairs, and ended up 37th, 46 laps down. It was his second-worst finish of the season and third in the 30s since July (39th at Daytona 2 and 32nd at Watkins Glen, but both of those were with crashes).

When the brake dust finally settled, Harvick ended up as the 12th and last driver to advance to the second round. The final margin: One measly point in front of Tony Stewart, who was 13th at Dover. Crew chief Rodney Childers and the No. 4 team know it does matter how much you get in by, as long as you get in.

The feeling ended up even worse for Kyle Larson and the No. 42 Target Chevrolet team. He had the final transfer spot by five points heading to Sunday, but ended up two points outside after finishing 25th.

Jamie McMurray was done early at Dover as he lost an engine and finished 40th, while Chris Buescher went as expected, finishing 23rd as the fourth driver eliminated.

Among the surprise advancers was Austin Dillon, who started the day tied with McMurray but turned in an eighth-place finish at the Monster Mile to end up 11th for the round, 10 points in front of Harvick.

Now everything resets once more and the next cutoff at Talladega awaits.

-After being delayed to Sunday due to heavy rains, Daniel Suarez cruised to the victory at the XFINITY Drive Sober 200 at Dover, joining Elliott Sadler in the second round of the Chase.

Four drivers will be eliminated from the first Chase in NASCAR's No. 2 series, and it's anyone's guess who will hang on. From fourth-place Brendan Gaughan to 10th-place Erik Jones, the separation between seven drivers is exactly 15 points.

Heck, even Ryan Sieg has a realistic shot from 11th. He's only 10 points behind Brennan Poole, who has the last transfer spot at the moment.

Some will be desperate for a win, others will be in search of ways to survive and advance. That's why the Chase has been, and will always be, worth watching.

Tom Zulewski will post a separate entry on the Camping World Truck Series race from Las Vegas later today. Follow him on Twitter @Tomzsports or @TommyZee81 and email tominator19@yahoo.com.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

Charlotte Motor Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Concord, North Carolina.

-SPRINT CUP: Bank of America 500, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 501 miles, 334 laps.

2015 champion: Joey Logano

-XFINITY SERIES: Drive for the Cure 300, Friday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2015 champion: Austin Dillon.

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Off until Oct. 22 for the Fred's 250 powered by Coca-Cola at Talladega Superspeedway.

Truex Jr. wins again, everybody in high gear to Chase

As the Chase for the Sprint Cup, 2016 edition, got under way Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway, the first shot in the title hunt came from none other than ... Martin Truex Jr.

Yeah, Jimmie Johnson has ruled this time of year in the past. Kyle Busch is the defending champion, but he doesn't do much when title time comes around until it's the right time to do it.

But they didn't come close to what Truex did at Chicago. The No. 78 found another gear, rallied late, and won the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400. Truex won for the third time this season and got a fairly huge break when a post-race laser inspection station failure was small enough to stay away from an "encumbered victory." 

Translation: Everyone on the 78 team can breathe again knowing they're safely through to the round of 12.,

Among the other highlights: Johnson led the most laps at Chicago (118), but ended up 12th. With the first of three races done in the opening round, Tony Stewart (16th) has the last transfer spot, a point ahead of Austin Dillon, who came in 13th, and Kevin Harvick, who was a lap down in 20th.

Michigan 2 race winner Kyle Larson was the first car a lap down in 18th, and he's two points behind Stewart.

As for Chris Buescher, he's holding up the rear, 12 points behind Stewart, after finishing 28th.

With Race No. 2 of the first round of the Cup Chase on deck, the fields are officially set for the first Chase battles in the XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series. Here's a quick summary of who's in the running for the title.

XFINITY

1. Erik Jones. Four wins: Bristol 1, Dover, Iowa 2, Chicago.

He may be heading to Furniture Row's second Cup team in 2017, but Jones has every intention of making a last splash before he leaves. Already has a six-point cushion on the field.

2. Elliott Sadler. Two wins: Talladega, Darlington

Leads all Chasers in the field with 23 top-10 finishes and comfortably led the points for the regular season. He'll be going deep as a serious title contender.

3. Daniel Suarez. One win: Michigan

Take away his win where he led 62 laps, and the second-year Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led a combined 23 circuits in the other 25 races. Because he has to endure seeing Kyle Busch on track whenever the mood hits, that stat can be forgiven.

And now, the rest with best finish listed.

4. Justin Allgaier: Second at Talladega, Daytona 2, Bristol 2.

In the 10 races to the Chase, Allgaier's worst run was 11th at Darlington and his average finish was 6.0. He's a dark horse worth watching.

5. Ty Dillon: Second at Richmond 1, Iowa 1 and 2.

Crashed at Bristol 2, but wasn't in any real danger of missing Chase. Has averaged a 10th-place finish since then (four races). Will need to pick it up to contend.

6. Brendan Gaughan: Second at Road America.

A win on the road course would have been nice for his standing, but Gaughan has to do better on the 1.5-mile tracks to have a title shot. Five of the seven Chase races will be run from that distance, and his average finish has been 11th in six other tries this season.

7, Brennan Poole: Third at Talladega and Road America.

The Talladega finish was Poole's first top-5 of the year, but it came in the eighth race. With only seven races in the Chase, he has to get going after finishing 21st at Chicago.

8. Brandon Jones: Sixth at Las Vegas

He's the only driver other than Blake Koch without a top-5 run in the regular season. Gotta get at least one to be considered a contender.

9. Darrell Wallace Jr.: Second at Dover

Bubba hasn't been very strong of late. He hasn't finished on the lead lap in six of the last 10 races and was two laps down at Chicagoland while finishing 20th.

10. Ryan Reed: Fifth at Road America

The native of Bakersfield, California has a sixth, ninth and 10th on his season resume. Everything else is 11th or worse.

11. Ryan Sieg: Third at Daytona 2.

Sieg's only other top-10 showing was 10th at Texas. Moving on...

12. Blake Koch: Eighth at Richmond, Bristol 2.

Add in a ninth in the season opener at Daytona, and you have Koch's season in a nutshell. Next?

CAMPING WORLD TRUCKS

1. William Byron. Five wins: Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Kentucky, Pocono

Byron doesn't turn 19 years old until Nov. 29. He drives for Kyle Busch Motorsports. That's all you need to know.

Other than engine issues at Atlanta (32nd) and a crash at Chicago (30th), Byron has been outside the top 10 only three other times. Prime contender for the title.

2. John Hunter Nemechek. Two wins: Atlanta, Canadian Tire.

The win on the road course near Toronto on Sept. 4 gave Nemechek a few more enemies than he would have liked. Voted the most popular driver in the series last season, Nemechek shoved Cole Custer to the grass on the final lap, and the pair crossed the finish line together off the track.

The result: Custer isn't in the Chase and the debate over Nemechek's move will be talked about all the way to Homestead.

3. Matt Crafton. Two wins: Dover, Charlotte.

Crafton went back-to-back with his wins this season and is the only repeat champion (2012, 2013) in Truck Series history. Bigger question: Can he break his hex at Las Vegas, which is the second race of the first round in the inaugural Chase?

His average finish there in the last seven visits is 5.1, including three seconds and two thirds. A win Oct. 1, after all the ThorSport race shop went through with a fire in June, will be a big motivator for title No. 3.

4. Johnny Sauter. One win: Daytona.

After three races where he finished 28th, 32nd and 16rh following the Daytona win, Sauter has been outside the top 10 just once -- a 13th at Eldora.

5. Christopher Bell. One win: Gateway.

Teammate to William Byron, Bell crashed at Michigan and finished 24th, but rebounded nicely with a fifth at Canadian Tire and fourth at Chicago. He'll need those kinds of efforts to advance.

6. Ben Kennedy. One win: Bristol

The son of ISC boss Lesa France Kennedy, the 24-year-old's only other top-5 run was a fourth at Texas. The series returns there Nov. 4, and the Red Horse Racing driver will be a contender for the title if he can get out of the first round.

7. Daniel Hemric: Second at Chicagoland.

Beyond his showing Friday, Hemric has six (!!) third-place runs on his season to date. Keep that up, and he'll be fine, even without a win.

8. Timothy Peters: Second at Michigan

The second driver for Red Horse Racing has covered each of the top five positions without a win. Peters was third at Atlanta, fourth at Pocono and fifth at Martinsville. He hasn't finished on the lead lap just once all season -- 34 laps down in 27th at Eldora.

Enjoy the rest of the Chase and may your favorite driver fare well enough to hold the big trophy at Homestead.

Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @Tomzsports or @TommyZee81. Email him at tominator19@yahoo.com.

THIS WEEK'S RACES

New Hampshire Motor Speedway (1.058-mile oval), Loudon, New Hampshire.

-SPRINT CUP: New England 300, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 laps, 317.4 miles.

2015 champion: Matt Kenseth

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: UNOH 175, Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 175 laps, 185.15 miles.

-XFINITY SERIES: VisitMyrtleBeach.com 300, Kentucky Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Saturday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2015 champion: Ryan Blaney.

It's time for another Chase

After 26 races and what seemed like 26 million different story lines that ebbed and flowed faster than the stock market, NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup is officially on to determine the 2016 champion.

And for the first time in recent memory, in spite of dominance in the Toyota camp, it can be said that at least nine drivers could garner a realistic chance at holding the waved checkered flag trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway in November.

With exactly 10 races left in the season, here are a few good thoughts on the field, who will be talked about as they stand right now heading to Chicagoland Speedway. Please be kind and remember ... no wagering.

-Brad Keselowski: Four wins ... Las Vegas, Talladega, Daytona 2, Kentucky.

The 2012 champion hasn't been totally dominant in his wins this season, having led the most laps only at the Coke Zero 400 (115 of 160). Somehow, BK finds a way to get himself to the front at the times he's supposed to be there.

The No. 2 has no DNFs, and that will be a big key as the Chase moves forward. Don't put too much stock in the win at Talladega, though. When they go there again in six weeks, the fight for survival will be in high gear.

Prediction: Round of 8 

-Kyle Busch: Four wins ... Martinsville, Texas, Kansas, Indianapolis

Our defending champion is one of three drivers to win consecutive races, but the Toyota camp as a whole (read: Joe Gibbs Racing) finished with 13 wins in the regular season. There's no reason to believe Kyle won't be up there again.

Prediction: Championship Four...again.

-Denny Hamlin: Three wins ... Daytona 1, Watkins Glen, Richmond 2

He may have fallen just short in leading the most laps to Martin Truex Jr. (193-189), but Hamlin sent himself off to the Chase with huge momentum after his win at Richmond on Saturday night. Not only is he alone in third place, but the JGR driver is best in qualifying among the Chasers (average: 5.9). 

Remember, though: Starting well is one thing. Finishing well is totally different. Hamlin has a golden chance to prove himself as championship material here.

Prediction: Championship Four

-Kevin Harvick: Two wins ... Phoenix, Bristol 2

There are issues on this team with the pit crew -- he led 214 laps at Darlington, but had to rally back after a bad stop just to finish second -- but the 2014 champion hasn't let that deter him too much. 

Harvick's average finish is 8.5, best among the Chase field. Brad Keselowski is the only other driver in single digits (9.7). It will serve him well.

Prediction: Championship Four. Someone has to spoil the Toyota party, and Harvick is capable.

-Carl Edwards: Two wins ... Bristol 1, Richmond 1

The driver of the No. 19 Arris Toyota led the most laps in each of his wins, but they won't be returning to either track in the Chase. Those wins completed a three-week stretch where Edwards led the bulk of his laps on the season -- 551 of 742.

In the 10 races to the Chase, his average finish is 16.9, including 32nd at Richmond on Saturday. 

Prediction: Round of 8

-Martin Truex Jr.: Two wins ... Charlotte, Darlington

The No. 78 became part of the Toyota camp in 2016, and the difference has been clear in the first multi-win season of Truex Jr.'s career. We won't forget his other-worldly showing at Charlotte, and they return there to start the second round of the Chase.

Don't expect him to repeat that, but momentum is on the side of the 78 camp with a third at Richmond that nicely followed up the Darlington victory.

Prediction: Championship Four

-Jimmie Johnson: Two wins ... Atlanta, Auto Club

Since his wins that moved him past Dale Earnhardt on the all-time career list with 77, Johnson has fallen on seriously hard times. In the race to the Chase, Johnson not only has four finishes of 33rd or worse, but he finished last (40th at Watkins Glen) for the first time in his Cup career.

Over the last 10 races, the 48 is averaging a finish of 19.5. Title No. 7 will be waiting at least one more year.

Prediction: Round of 12

-Matt Kenseth: Two wins ... Dover, Loudon

Even though he's been part of a wildly successful season at JGR, Kenseth hasn't done much since his Loudon victory. Despite qualifying well at both Bristol 2 and Richmond 2, the finishes have been 37th and 38th, respectively. For the season, he's 13th out of the 16 Chasers in average finish (15.4).

With a return trip to both of his wins on tap, he'll need repeat performances just to keep going.

Prediction: Round of 8

-Joey Logano: One win ... Michigan 1

The second driver of the Penske camp hasn't been overly spectacular, but delivered solid finishes in the stretch drive. Logano has been consistent, finishing 10th in three of the last four races, sandwiched around a fifth at Darlington.

That's the kind of momentum that advances drivers through the Chase.

Prediction: Round of 8

-Kurt Busch: One win ... Pocono 1

The driver of the No. 41 for Stewart-Haas Racing hasn't been running well since his Pocono win. Busch the Elder has just one top-5 run since then (fourth at Kentucky), and his average finish is 16.5. It's made worse with crashes at Bristol 2 (38th) and Darlington (34th) in the last four weeks.

Prediction: Round of 12

-Kyle Larson: One win ... Michigan 2

Once he finally got his first career win three weeks ago, Larson has followed up with a third at Darlington and second at Richmond. He's led laps in all three (101 total) and it's a building block for good things ahead.

Prediction: Round of 12

-Tony Stewart: One win ... Sonoma

In his final season as a full-time driver, Stewart left all of us with a beautiful memory when he won for the third time in Northern California. Two passes on the final lap in a duel with Hamlin doesn't normally happen there.

Stewart's stuck on 49 career wins. I'm sorry to say he's not going to make 50 or get a shot at title No. 4, not with three finishes in the 30s in the last four weeks.

Prediction: Round of 16

-Chris Buescher: One win ... Pocono 2

Let's get him out of the way. Buescher deserves hearty congratulations for making the Chase field.

He has a fifth at Bristol 2 on his season resume, but runs like the last three -- 35th at Michigan, 17th at Darlington and 24th at Richmond 2 will not advance him very far. He's with the big boys now.

Prediction: Round of 16

-Austin Dillon: No wins

In his third season as a full-time Cup driver, Dillon is starting to come into his own. He has four top-5 runs on the season, the most in his career. That includes a career-best third at Talladega and fourth at Martinsville, which will both be run in the Chase.

Prediction: Round of 12 with potential to go one more as long as the top-10s are there.

-Jamie McMurray: No wins

He has only one top-5 all year, but it was a fourth at Talladega. McMurray has won there before, but will need to go rounds to get a shot at a deeper run.

His last three races: Eighth, 15th, seventh. 

Prediction: Round of 16

And finally...

Chase Elliott: No wins

The heralded rookie started the year with a bang by winning the pole for the Daytona 500, but wrecked early and finished 37th. 

Elliott's problem: He's way too hard on himself at times, and it's shown up on track. In the 10 races to the Chase, his average finish is 20.4 with four coming 31st or worse.

He's only a rookie, though. He'll get much better.

Prediction: Round of 16.

Next week, we'll look at the XFINITY and Trucks Chase fields.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

Chicagoland Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Joliet, Illinois

-SPRINT CUP: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps.

2015 champion: Denny Hamlin

-XFINITY SERIES: Drive for Safety 300, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2015 champion: Kyle Busch

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: American Ethanol E15 225, Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5;30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 225 miles, 150 laps,

2015 champion: John Hunter Nemechek.

Logano takes out Kenseth, wins at Kansas

He didn’t have anything to lose after his win last week at Charlotte, but Joey Logano wasn’t about to lie down for anyone as he raced for another victory in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on Sunday.
Matt Kenseth, in desperate search of anything resembling a shred of momentum and title-chasing hopes, found out what that meant in the closing laps around the 1.5-mile oval.

Logano pulled off the bump-and-run on Kenseth with five laps to go to take the lead and held on in a green-white-checkered finish to pick up his second straight win and give the remaining drivers in the Contender round of the Chase plenty to think about with the next elimination on deck Oct. 25 at Talladega Superspeedway.
The proof is clearly in the points. After Logano, only seven more drivers will keep championship hope alive, and second through 10th place is separated by a total of 20 points.
That will make Talladega – already an unpredictable wild-card when the Chase isn’t involved – a viewing and racing experience that will border on downright insane.
With Kansas in the rear-view mirror, Martin Truex Jr. would be the last driver to advance to the Eliminator round of the Chase. He has a six-point cushion on Kyle Busch and is eight points ahead of Ryan Newman.
And on the flip side of the coin, Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr. may want to get advice from Kevin Harvick on how to win when their backs are clearly against the wall.
Kenseth may have gone from leading 153 of the 267 laps to finishing a decent 14th, but it wasn’t nearly good enough to counter last week’s 42nd-place showing at Charlotte. He’s in 12th, 35 points behind Truex Jr.
Directly in front of Kenseth sits Dale Jr. at 31 points behind the cutoff. He may have won the GEICO 500 at Talladega in May, but there’s no amount of looking at past film that can be done to figure out a way to win again. This race, the CampingWorld.com 500, is all about keeping the car in one piece and making moves toward the front at the right times. Those who do will continue on in the Chase, while the rest will be left to lament what might have been.
For those who love drag racing, the NHRA Toyota Nationals is on deck Oct. 29 to Nov. 1 at the Strip at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It’s the penultimate stop of the season to determine the 2015 champions in the four professional classes – Top Fuel, Funny Car, Pro Stock car and Pro Stock motorcycle.
After the weekend’s action finished up at Texas Motorplex outside of Dallas, three champions could potentially be crowned in two weeks. In Top Fuel, Antron Brown enjoys a 132-point cushion over Tony Schumacher and in Pro Stock, defending champion Erica Enders-Stevens leads Greg Anderson by 154.
Enders-Stevens is not only closing in on another championship, she has ruled the day at Las Vegas with three straight event victories and an 18-round winning streak. At 20 points per round win to go with additional bonuses for qualifying position and setting new track records, don’t be surprised if Enders-Stevens exits Las Vegas with her second golden Wally championship trophy.
Brown may have the inside track on his second title in the last four seasons (2012), but Schumacher has a history of stealing thunder in shocking fashion as his eight championships in the category, including 2014, will attest.
Funny Car and Pro Stock Motorcycle will have title fights that go down to the wire when the series hits the season finale at Pomona, Calif. on Nov. 12. Del Worsham, who won at Las Vegas last fall, also won at Texas over Jack Beckman in the final and increased his lead to 38 points.
In PSM, Andrew Hines probably breathed a sigh of relief after teammate Eddie Krawiec lost to Jerry Savoie in the final round at Texas. The end result means Hines, in search of a second straight championship, kept a 21-point lead heading to Las Vegas.
Jason Line (2012 in Pro Stock) and John Force (2013 in Funny Car) have won NHRA championship Wally trophies in the Countdown era at Las Vegas. If the current battles are any indication, it’s worth making the trek south in two weeks to see who may be next.

Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

Talladega Superspeedway (2.66-mile D-shaped oval), Talladega, Ala.

-SPRINT CUP: CampingWorld.com 500, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 500 miles, 188 laps

2014 champion: Brad Keselowski

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Fred's 250 presented by Coca-Cola, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT, Fox. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 250 miles, 94 laps.

2014 champion: Timothy Peters.

Random thoughts on the Contenders

As we hit the mid-week lull in the land of gear boxes and post-race inspections that are shown for the whole world to see online, I can't help but wonder how good this round of the Chase will be. Kevin Harvick is master of this domain, as was showcased at Dover on Sunday.
Harvick may have done his post-race burnout a little too excessively (said only by those who couldn't catch him in the race), but he did what he absolutely had to do to keep his vision of repeating alive.
With Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega on deck, here are a few more random musings on the chances of the Contender 12.
-Harvick: With his win at Dover -- after going 0-for-29 previously -- the title is his to lose. It will not matter if he's on the outside looking in when we get to Talladega.
-Matt Kenseth: Joined teammate Denny Hamlin as the other race winners of the Challenger round. Was fourth at Charlotte, sixth at Kansas and 25th at Talladega the first time around. Started on pole at CMS. With Talladega being such a terrible crap shoot to begin with, it's not a stretch to say a win in the next two races will take the heat off.
-Denny Hamlin: Was eighth at Charlotte, ninth at Talladega, but 41st at Kansas. As long as he gets things figured out at Kansas, he'll be fine. A win may not be necessary for him to advance.
-Carl Edwards: Had his 400th career start to open the Chase at Chicago, finished second to Hamlin. Won at Charlotte, but was 20th at Kansas and 32nd at Talladega. Any sort of a repeat on Round 2 is most definitely not an option.
-Kyle Busch: For all the hype of his four wins and getting into the Chase despite missing nearly half of the regular season, Busch nearly fell flat on his face. Somehow, he was able to advance with a runner-up finish at Dover. The final margin: One point...and it was complicated by Harvick's victory.
Busch's races in Round 1: 9th, 37th, second.
The first time at the tracks in Round 2: Only an 11th-place run at Charlotte, which was his first points race after the injury. In Busch's career, he's won exactly one Chase race, and that was all the way back in his rookie year at Phoenix in 2005.
Winning may be the only option that gets him through to the Eliminator round.
-Kurt Busch: Was third, 19th and 17th in Round 1, which was good enough -- by two points -- to get him to the next round.
In the first pass at the Round 2 Chase tracks, Busch was 10th, eighth and 12th. As long as he's somewhere in the neighborhood this time, it'll get him through for an Eliminator shot.
-Joey Logano: Average finish in Challenger round was 6.3. Average at Contender tracks the first time through: 17th. Highlight was a 33rd at Talladega.
No matter how good Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski have been so far, NASCAR's biggest, baddest track will be a nightmare without a trip to Victory Lane before then.
Logano's average finish in the last 10 races (since Indianapolis) is 5.9, though, so it could be a wash.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Finishing order in Round 1 (Chicago, Loudon, Dover): 13th, 8th, 11th. Had issues with pre-race inspection at Dover that forced him to back of field, made a great rally to get through to Round 2.
He was solid at Contender tracks the first time around with two fifths (Charlotte, Talladega) sandwiched around a ninth at Kansas. As long as he stays out of trouble, a win will be a needed boost that carries Truex into the Eliminator round.
-Jeff Gordon: Still has a zero in the win column and 92 for his career, but the drive for a fifth championship is still very much alive. Was 14th, seventh and 12th in Round 1.
Like several of his fellow Chasers, Gordon had problems at Talladega in May and finished 31st. A win may be the only thing that gets him through.
-Brad Keselowski: Had decent, if not tremendous, first round of Chase, finishing eighth, 12th and 16th. Continuing the earlier theme, BK finished 22nd at Talladega the first time around.
Unless he has a win by then, look for the title dreams to end in this round.
-Ryan Newman: Still hasn't won a race since the 2013 Brickyard 400, but is still quietly very much in contention for another shot at the title.
Newman's Round 1 finishes: fourth, 10th and 19th. It got him through to the Contender round by a single point.
And here's more to give Newman Nation a little more hope: He was sixth, 10th and 7th at the Round 2 tracks the first time around.
Those who think a winless champion will happen need look no further than how Ryan Newman is performing. It's all about how you finish.
-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Because Harvick won at Dover, Junior Nation didn't have to sweat. By virtue of his two wins, the 88 knocked out Jamie McMurray by winning a tiebreaker and moved on to Round 2 of the Chase.
Junior's Dover finish (3rd) basically saved him after runs of 12th at Chicago and 25th at Loudon. The 88 was solid at the next three Chase tracks the first time around with two thirds and a win at Talladega. All duplication at this point is most welcome.
And my picks for the next four to see their title dreams end: Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I never claimed to be Nostradamus, and the way this Chase works is a big reason why.
Followers and comments are welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

Bowyer penalty delivers big hit to Chase hopes

Today may be only Wednesday as this post is being made, but there's even more madness to sort through in regards to the Chase standings.
The biggest insanity came with the announcement that Clint Bowyer was docked 25 points by NASCAR for a P4-level violation, according to the lovely rule book, in opening inspection after Chicagoland Speedway.
The reason: an illegal track bar. There were four sections that were discussed in the violation, so rather than try to explain them here myself, I'll gladly defer to an article written by MRN Radio's Pete Pistone. Each part of the violation is described there.
Bowyer was 19th in the MyAFibRisk.com 400, so he fell to 15th in the points. Even after Kevin Harvick's bad race, Bowyer is now behind the defending Sprint Cup champ in 16th after the penalty was figured in.
Of course, Michael Waltrip Racing -- a team in its final nine weeks of Sprint Cup competition -- is planning to appeal. When you go from only six points behind 12th to 31 back, there's nothing to lose when a chance to advance is at stake.
And while Harvick is still 22 behind Jeff Gordon, the important priority lies ahead for both drivers.
It clearly involves one word. Winning.
As good as Harvick has been this season -- he's finished in the top 10 in 22 of the 27 races -- it would figure the champ doesn't have nearly as much to worry about as Bowyer does despite the post-race shoving match he tried to get into with Jimmie Johnson at Chicagoland.
Bowyer hasn't won a Cup race since Charlotte in October of 2012, 104 races ago. With a deficit this large now, pending the outcome of the penalty appeal, even back-to-back top-5 runs may not help.
The driver of the No. 15 5-Hour Energy Toyota for MWR had his last top-5 run at Bristol last month and was third at Sonoma prior to that.
It's unfortunate the penalties were handed down at this point in the season, but favorites should never be played. NASCAR's rule book may be baffling even to those who cover the Sprint Cup series on a full-time basis, but when something's done wrong, there's no gray area when the right to hold a shiny checkered-flag trophy is on the line.
Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @Tomzsports.

Hamlin wins, Harvick fumes at Chicagoland

With all that went on from the opening race of the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup on Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway, NASCAR fans may need a few extra minutes of water-cooler talk time to process all that went on.
The main exhibit came with Denny Hamlin. He’s part of the red-hot Joe Gibbs Racing team, but no one expected what he pulled off on a perfect day for racing in the Midwest.

Hamlin, torn ACL in his knee and all, not only survived a spin early in the MyAfibRisk.com 400, but led nine laps and took the checkered flag to punch his automatic ticket into the Contender round of the Chase.
Hamlin’s effort leads to Exhibit B, better known as how karma bit defending Sprint Cup champion Kevin Harvick squarely in the backside and dealt a serious blow to his chances of repeating.
Earlier in the week, Harvick flashed some serious bravado by declaring this about the JGR drivers, as written by Kenny Bruce in a story published on NASCAR.com after Chase media days Thursday:
"I wouldn't consider us behind the Gibbs cars," Harvick said. "I've raced against the Gibbs cars. I think we're going to pound them into the ground, that's what I think. Hopefully they can beat themselves."
That certainly didn’t happen Sunday.
Strike one in the bulletin-board wars, not to mention a pretty good pounding, went against Harvick, and pretty badly at that. Hamlin came all the way from 29th – with qualifying rained out, the field was set on speeds from the first practice session – and won the race. Harvick, who started on the pole as fastest from at that same session, got together with Jimmie Johnson, took a hard hit into the wall at lap 139, and finished 42nd, matching his absolute worst finish of the season (Pocono 2).
Adding to the indignity of the moment, it was just the fifth time all year Harvick has finished outside the top 10 in 27 races. To top it all off, the other JGR drivers all finished in the top 10 – Carl Edwards was second, Matt Kenseth finished fifth and Kyle Busch came home in ninth.
Cameras caught Johnson trying to talk with Harvick at his hauler over what happened after the race, but Harvick was in no mood, giving Johnson a few good shoves before his PR guy is shown leading him into a waiting car.
Johnson never made a move toward Harvick to escalate things, and it was probably for the better.
As things stand, Harvick has every right to be mad, but it’s mainly because his mouth wrote the check his car couldn’t cash. With only two races to run before the bottom four in the standings are eliminated, Harvick basically has one mission.
It’s win or get ready to hand off the championship trophy to someone else.
History is on Harvick’s side in the battle to be the champ. One year ago, he had to win at Phoenix to advance to the Championship round at Homestead. Then he had to win at Homestead to win the title, beating Ryan Newman by only a half-second.
That was then. The odds are a lot longer now.
After Chicago, Harvick is 22 points behind Jeff Gordon, who holds the 12th and last transfer spot into the next round. The deficit is not impossible to overcome, but with only two races to do it, a win at either New Hampshire this weekend or Dover on Oct. 4 will take the pressure off.
Harvick was runner-up at Dover in May and finished third at New Hampshire in July, so the experience is there.
In order to overcome the disaster that was Chicagoland, the champ needs to keep his head down, his mouth shut, and do the necessary work to keep his title hopes alive.

Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

New Hampshire Motor Speedway (1.058-mile oval), Loudon, New Hampshire.

-SPRINT CUP: Sylvania 300, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 300 laps, 317.4 miles.

2014 champion: Joey Logano

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: UNOH 175, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 175 laps, 185.15 miles

2014 champion: Cole Custer

-XFINITY SERIES: VisitMyrtleBeach.com 300, Kentucky Speedway (1.5-mile tri-oval), Sparta, Kentucky, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2014 champion: Brendan Gaughan

Busting out the Chase crystal ball

After 26 weeks of stories and news that went to the borderline edge of amazing -- from Kevin Harvick's early dominance to Kurt Busch's winning to Kyle Busch's amazing winning -- the 16 drivers looking to hold the Sprint Cup trophy are set to go after the 2015 title of champion.

The usual cast of characters are in the field, along with some interesting surprise guests. For those who may be new to the latest incarnation of NASCAR's playoffs, the field gets whittled down in three-race chunks. In all cases, a win is an automatic ticket to the next round, from Challenger to Contender to Eliminator

Here's my look at the Chase field with semi-coherent predictions on how they'll fare:

-Jimmie Johnson: With the contract extension signed, sealed and delivered for two more seasons, Johnson can get back to what he does best -- ruling the roost in the Chase.

Average finish in last 10 races: 13.5.

The first time at Chase tracks (2015): Won at Dover, 22nd at Loudon.

A sweep of the Monster Mile will be key, and Johnson's only won three of the last four there and 10 in his career. The timing couldn't be better to advance, but he won't last past the Contender round.

-Matt Kenseth: Part of the JGR stable that's been absolutely on fire. It's been 12 years since his only title, but the driver of the No. 20 is poised for a serious run.

Average finish in last 10 races: 11.1. Three wins, but a 42nd at Bristol.

The first time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Charlotte and Martinsville, 39th at Dover.

As hot as all of the Gibbs cars have been, Toyota's got a real shot to have its first Sprint Cup champion driver. Kenseth is the one who has best shot of the group.

Prediction: Championship round.

-Kyle Busch: Easily the best driver story of 2015. Four wins -- in five weeks -- and out for the first 11 races to heal from a broken foot and fractured leg.

Average finish in last 10 races: 7.1

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Loudon, 36th at Dover.

Like Kenseth, as long as Busch gets past Dover in good shape, he'll be fine.

Prediction: Championship round.

-Joey Logano: Made final round a year ago, is on even better roll than Kyle Busch.

Average finish in last 10 races: 6.6. Two wins (Watkins Glen, Bristol), two runner-ups, one third, two fourths.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Martinsville, 33rd at Talladega.

With the roll Logano's been on, it'll be a bit of a shock if he isn't back among the final four again.

Prediction: Out in Contender round, but just barely.

-Kevin Harvick: Defending champion, and had to earn it by winning at Homestead, which is why this Chase playoff system works.

Average finish in last 10: 8.6.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Phoenix, 9th at Charlotte.

Had to do a double-take, but you read it right. Eight of the 10 Chase tracks are repeat stops, and Harvick wasn't outside the top 10 at any of them.

And even more amazing. Harvick's two wins came early in the year, but he's also been runner-up 10 times on the season. I can't imagine him not getting back to the final four.

Prediction: Repeats as Sprint Cup champion.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Is this finally the year for Junior Nation to revel in their guy winning a Sprint Cup crown? There's always room to dream.

Average finish in last 10: 9.6. Win at Daytona.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Talladega, 43rd at Phoenix.

A sweep of NASCAR's biggest track will be reason to party, but that's as far as the celebration goes.

Prediction: Out in Eliminator round.

-Kurt Busch: Like little brother Kyle, didn't race the full year. Unlike Kyle, Kurt had to deal with a NASCAR-imposed suspension for legal issues in a case of alleged domestic violence.

While Kyle won in his fifth race back, Kurt won a pole in just his second race of 2015.

Average finish in last 10: 13.0

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Phoenix, 31st at Dover.

Prediction: Out in Challenger round.

-Carl Edwards: He may not do the Twitter thing, but he's got the winning thing down cold. Has memory of 2011 tie with Tony Stewart to eradicate from his soul, and Edwards is in the right place to do it.
Average finish in last 10: 10.8.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Charlotte, 32nd at Talladega.
As stated earlier, Toyota's got a chance to be a Sprint Cup-winning manufacturer. Edwards has the desire to erase some bad history from the memory banks.
Prediction: Championship round.
Due to time restrictions, the lower half of the playoff field gets the quickie capsule analysis.
-Brad Keselowski: 2012 champion with one win on year at Fontana.
Average finish in last 10: 8.1. Only blip: a 29th at Daytona.
First time at Chase tracks (2015); 2nd at Martinsville and Loudon, 22nd at Talladega.
Prediction: Contender round.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Win came at Pocono, only the third of Truex's Sprint Cup career. Not exactly rolling into Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 18.7.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Talladega and Charlotte, 12th at Loudon
Prediction: Contender round.
-Denny Hamlin: This is one pick I may be fooled on, and his knee injury plays a part. He was sixth at Richmond, but that track isn't in the Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 9.1
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Martinsville, 41st at Kansas.
Prediction: Eliminator round.
-Jamie McMurray: Has started and finished consistently on year -- 15.1 to 15.0 -- but it's go time now.
Average finish in last 10: 18.0
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 2nd at Phoenix, 26th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round
-Jeff Gordon: It's bad enough one of the legends of NASCAR hasn't won in 2015, but he's at least got one more chance to win his fifth Cup crown to close out an amazing career.
Average finish in last 10: 16.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Kansas, 31st at Talladega.
Prediction: Eliminator round
-Ryan Newman: One of the most interesting stories of the last three seasons. The guy doesn't win and doesn't lead a ton of laps, but he's near the front on a consistent basis.
Average finish in last 10: 13.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Phoenix, 27th at Martinsville.
Prediction: Eliminator round (and if he goes deep again, I apologize in advance).
-Clint Bowyer: Shoved aside the distraction of the closure of Michael Waltrip Racing and put a fifth Toyota in the Chase field. He's looking to make an impression for 2016 and beyond.
Average finish in last 10: 15.6
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 9th at Dover, 34th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round.
-Paul Menard: This year's answer to Aric Almirola despite not winning a race. He's led one lap all season and has one win in 317 Cup starts, so it will be a miracle if he escapes out of the first round.
Average finish in last 10: 18.2.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Talladega, 41st at Texas.
Prediction: Challenger round.
And with that, let the Chase insanity begin.
Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

Kenseth wins Richmond, Chase field is set

Aric Almirola tried his best to do what he had to do, but came up just short. In the end, Matt Kenseth dominated and won the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway on Saturday night, earning his fourth victory of the 2015 season by leading 352 of the 400 laps. It was Kenseth’s second-highest total of laps led in a race in his career.

With the top 16 drivers now officially locked in for this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup that begins next Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway, Almirola made a strong push late in the race to make the playoff field for the second year in a row. After beating Kyle Busch off pit road on the race’s final pit stop, he restarted third with 17 laps to go.
The driver of the No. 43 Smithfield Foods/Waffle House Ford for Richard Petty Motorsports couldn’t challenge Kenseth and ended up fourth, just his second top-five finish of the season. It wouldn’t be good enough to make the Chase.
In total, 11 of the 16 drivers who qualified for this year’s Chase got in with race victories, down two from last season’s total of 13. Kenseth joined Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch with the highest win total of the regular season at four apiece.
Jeff Gordon is among the five non-winners in the field and will get one last shot at capturing his fifth Sprint/Winston Cup championship. Gordon has been shut out of Victory Lane in a season only three times in his 22-year career – his rookie season of 1993, 2008 and 2010. He’s been stuck on 92 career wins since last year’s fall race at Dover.
Ryan Newman and Paul Menard are also competing for this year’s title for Richard Childress Racing, and Newman could potentially surprise the field again. Newman made the championship race a year ago at Homestead-Miami Speedway and fell a half-second short of Kevin Harvick, who won the Ford EcoBoost 400 and his first Sprint Cup crown.
Newman posted only three top-10 finishes (8th at Daytona and Michigan, 10th at Bristol) in the last 10 races. He’ll need similar finishes if he wants a chance at the title again. Newman hasn’t won since the 2013 Brickyard 400 and has led only 19 laps all season.
Menard won the XFINITY race on the road course at Road America in his home state of Wisconsin last month, but has just one career win in 317 Sprint Cup starts. His last top-10 finish came at Michigan in June and he was 26th at Richmond on Saturday.
Menard has led one lap all season (Texas), but his point total was good enough to get him in the playoff field.
Jamie McMurray and Clint Bowyer are the other non-winners who made the Chase. Like Newman, McMurray hasn’t won a Cup race since 2013 (Talladega 2), but he’s been consistent. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has been anywhere from 11th to 16th in the final running order in nine of the last 11 races, including 13th at Richmond on Saturday.
Bowyer had one of the worst distractions a driver could possibly endure when Michael Waltrip Racing announced Aug. 19 it wouldn’t be racing full-time at season’s end. Bowyer responded with a fifth-place showing at Bristol, 17th at Darlington and 10th at Richmond.
The Emporia, Kansas native has eight Sprint Cup wins in 351 starts, but none since 2012 (Charlotte 2). Bowyer had three wins that year and finished second in points to Brad Keselowski.
As for the rest of the contenders, here's how they'll line up:
-Kenseth: Wins at Bristol 1, Pocono 2, Michigan 2 and Richmond 2. Could be an interesting champion because it's been 12 years since he won his only Sprint Cup title. If he pulls it off, Kenseth matches Terry Labonte, who won his titles in 1984 and 1996.
-Johnson: Always a contender, as six Sprint Cup titles -- all in the Chase era -- can attest. Wins at Atlanta, Texas, Kansas and Dover.
Hasn't been struggling, by any means, but may be thankful Michigan isn't among the Chase tracks. He was 39th in June and 19th in August. Side note: Johnson turns 40 on Thursday.
-Kyle Busch: Story of the year with his comeback from broken ankle and fractured leg. Met every criteria to get in the Chase and may be a serious contender to match big brother Kurt with his own Sprint Cup trophy.
Wins at Sonoma, Kentucky, New Hampshire and Indianapolis, all four coming in a five-week period. Only blips since starting his hot streak: 17th at Daytona, 21st at Pocono and 11th at Michigan. None of those tracks are in the Chase.
-Joey Logano: Three wins on year at Daytona 1, Watkins Glen and Bristol 2. Made final round last year, finished fourth. Since the June Pocono race, where he finished fourth, the Penske Racing driver's worst runs were 22nd at Daytona and 20th at Pocono in August.
Everything else has been no worse than seventh. That's how titles are won.
-Kevin Harvick: Has two wins on the year at Las Vegas and Phoenix, but also one other amazing stat that sticks out like Superman's chest. The defending Sprint Cup champion has finished second 10 times in the first 26 races.
A few more of those may not ease the pain of coming so close so many times, but holding the trophy again at Homestead will be as soothing as an ocean breeze.
Harvick hits the 40-year-old milestone on Dec. 8.
-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Is this the year for Junior Nation to celebrate their driver's first Sprint Cup title? Hendrick Motorsports hasn't won since Junior did it at Daytona in July, so the curiosity factor is there.
Earnhardt's other win came at Talladega, and the field is cut to the Eliminator round after they race there on Oct. 25. Will be one huge party if he finishes the sweep.
-Kurt Busch: Wins at Richmond 1 and Michigan 1. Didn't have the injury issues his little brother did, but missed the first three races due to a NASCAR-mandated suspension for legal matters in the case of alleged domestic violence with ex-girlfriend Patricia Driscoll.
It's been 11 years since he won his Sprint Cup title. Since finishing second to Kyle Busch at Sonoma, Kurt was fifth at Kentucky, then 10th at Loudon and Daytona.
On the flip side, he was eighth at Indianapolis, 37th at Pocono 2, and fifth at Watkins Glen. The first three-race block will be the preferred finishing order to advance out of the Challenger round.
-Carl Edwards: Wins at Charlotte and Darlington.
The memory of finishing in the flat-footed tie for the 2011 championship with Tony Stewart not withstanding, Edwards is in a good place on a race team that's absolutely on fire. Won't be surprising if all four of the Joe Gibbs cars make it to Homestead for a title shot.
-Brad Keselowski: The 2012 Sprint Cup champ earned his win at Auto Club Speedway in March. Since finishing 29th at Daytona in July, BK hasn't missed a top-10 finish, including three runner-up efforts (New Hampshire, Pocono 2 and Darlington). It's the roll you want to be on with this championship format.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Won at Pocono 1 to earn his third career victory. The Furniture Row No. 78 may be a single-car operation based out of Denver, but the New Jersey native has benefited from being there. Truex has led 497 laps this season, second-highest total of his career (581 in 2007).
-Denny Hamlin: Saving the best for last, so to speak. Hamlin's win was at Martinsville in April.
Hamlin tore the ACL in his right knee Tuesday, yet finished sixth at Richmond.
He tore up the other knee in 2010 and nearly -- check that...probably should have -- won the Sprint Cup title.
Hamlin made the final four a year ago. Don't be surprised if he plays well through the pain and gets there again.
For the second year in a row, there are three rounds of three races each that trim the Chase field down to the final four who battle at Homestead to determine who will be celebrated as the Sprint Cup champion for 2015 in Las Vegas in December.
A race win gets a Chaser into the next round, but good finishes can also carry him through. With five non-winners in the field, it’s anyone’s guess who will hold the big trophy.
If last year’s title fight was any indication, race fans are in for another treat this time around.
Followers and comments are welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

Chicagoland Speedway (1.5-mile superspeedway), Joliet, Illinois.

-SPRINT CUP: MyAFibRisk.com 400, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET/Noon PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affilate.

Race distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps.

2014 champion: Brad Keselowski

-XFINITY SERIES: Jimmy John's Freaky Fast 300 powered by Coca-Cola, Saturday, 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2014 champion: Kevin Harvick

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: American Ethanol E15 225, Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 225 miles, 150 laps.

2014 champion: Kyle Busch.