As we hit the mid-week lull in the land of gear boxes and post-race inspections that are shown for the whole world to see online, I can't help but wonder how good this round of the Chase will be. Kevin Harvick is master of this domain, as was showcased at Dover on Sunday.
Harvick may have done his post-race burnout a little too excessively (said only by those who couldn't catch him in the race), but he did what he absolutely had to do to keep his vision of repeating alive.
With Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega on deck, here are a few more random musings on the chances of the Contender 12.
-Harvick: With his win at Dover -- after going 0-for-29 previously -- the title is his to lose. It will not matter if he's on the outside looking in when we get to Talladega.
-Matt Kenseth: Joined teammate Denny Hamlin as the other race winners of the Challenger round. Was fourth at Charlotte, sixth at Kansas and 25th at Talladega the first time around. Started on pole at CMS. With Talladega being such a terrible crap shoot to begin with, it's not a stretch to say a win in the next two races will take the heat off.
-Denny Hamlin: Was eighth at Charlotte, ninth at Talladega, but 41st at Kansas. As long as he gets things figured out at Kansas, he'll be fine. A win may not be necessary for him to advance.
-Carl Edwards: Had his 400th career start to open the Chase at Chicago, finished second to Hamlin. Won at Charlotte, but was 20th at Kansas and 32nd at Talladega. Any sort of a repeat on Round 2 is most definitely not an option.
-Kyle Busch: For all the hype of his four wins and getting into the Chase despite missing nearly half of the regular season, Busch nearly fell flat on his face. Somehow, he was able to advance with a runner-up finish at Dover. The final margin: One point...and it was complicated by Harvick's victory.
Busch's races in Round 1: 9th, 37th, second.
The first time at the tracks in Round 2: Only an 11th-place run at Charlotte, which was his first points race after the injury. In Busch's career, he's won exactly one Chase race, and that was all the way back in his rookie year at Phoenix in 2005.
Winning may be the only option that gets him through to the Eliminator round.
-Kurt Busch: Was third, 19th and 17th in Round 1, which was good enough -- by two points -- to get him to the next round.
In the first pass at the Round 2 Chase tracks, Busch was 10th, eighth and 12th. As long as he's somewhere in the neighborhood this time, it'll get him through for an Eliminator shot.
-Joey Logano: Average finish in Challenger round was 6.3. Average at Contender tracks the first time through: 17th. Highlight was a 33rd at Talladega.
No matter how good Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski have been so far, NASCAR's biggest, baddest track will be a nightmare without a trip to Victory Lane before then.
Logano's average finish in the last 10 races (since Indianapolis) is 5.9, though, so it could be a wash.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Finishing order in Round 1 (Chicago, Loudon, Dover): 13th, 8th, 11th. Had issues with pre-race inspection at Dover that forced him to back of field, made a great rally to get through to Round 2.
He was solid at Contender tracks the first time around with two fifths (Charlotte, Talladega) sandwiched around a ninth at Kansas. As long as he stays out of trouble, a win will be a needed boost that carries Truex into the Eliminator round.
-Jeff Gordon: Still has a zero in the win column and 92 for his career, but the drive for a fifth championship is still very much alive. Was 14th, seventh and 12th in Round 1.
Like several of his fellow Chasers, Gordon had problems at Talladega in May and finished 31st. A win may be the only thing that gets him through.
-Brad Keselowski: Had decent, if not tremendous, first round of Chase, finishing eighth, 12th and 16th. Continuing the earlier theme, BK finished 22nd at Talladega the first time around.
Unless he has a win by then, look for the title dreams to end in this round.
-Ryan Newman: Still hasn't won a race since the 2013 Brickyard 400, but is still quietly very much in contention for another shot at the title.
Newman's Round 1 finishes: fourth, 10th and 19th. It got him through to the Contender round by a single point.
And here's more to give Newman Nation a little more hope: He was sixth, 10th and 7th at the Round 2 tracks the first time around.
Those who think a winless champion will happen need look no further than how Ryan Newman is performing. It's all about how you finish.
-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Because Harvick won at Dover, Junior Nation didn't have to sweat. By virtue of his two wins, the 88 knocked out Jamie McMurray by winning a tiebreaker and moved on to Round 2 of the Chase.
Junior's Dover finish (3rd) basically saved him after runs of 12th at Chicago and 25th at Loudon. The 88 was solid at the next three Chase tracks the first time around with two thirds and a win at Talladega. All duplication at this point is most welcome.
And my picks for the next four to see their title dreams end: Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I never claimed to be Nostradamus, and the way this Chase works is a big reason why.
Followers and comments are welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.
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