Monday, September 12, 2016

It's time for another Chase

After 26 races and what seemed like 26 million different story lines that ebbed and flowed faster than the stock market, NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup is officially on to determine the 2016 champion.
And for the first time in recent memory, in spite of dominance in the Toyota camp, it can be said that at least nine drivers could garner a realistic chance at holding the waved checkered flag trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway in November.
With exactly 10 races left in the season, here are a few good thoughts on the field, who will be talked about as they stand right now heading to Chicagoland Speedway. Please be kind and remember ... no wagering.
-Brad Keselowski: Four wins ... Las Vegas, Talladega, Daytona 2, Kentucky.
The 2012 champion hasn't been totally dominant in his wins this season, having led the most laps only at the Coke Zero 400 (115 of 160). Somehow, BK finds a way to get himself to the front at the times he's supposed to be there.
The No. 2 has no DNFs, and that will be a big key as the Chase moves forward. Don't put too much stock in the win at Talladega, though. When they go there again in six weeks, the fight for survival will be in high gear.
Prediction: Round of 8 
-Kyle Busch: Four wins ... Martinsville, Texas, Kansas, Indianapolis
Our defending champion is one of three drivers to win consecutive races, but the Toyota camp as a whole (read: Joe Gibbs Racing) finished with 13 wins in the regular season. There's no reason to believe Kyle won't be up there again.
Prediction: Championship Four...again.
-Denny Hamlin: Three wins ... Daytona 1, Watkins Glen, Richmond 2
He may have fallen just short in leading the most laps to Martin Truex Jr. (193-189), but Hamlin sent himself off to the Chase with huge momentum after his win at Richmond on Saturday night. Not only is he alone in third place, but the JGR driver is best in qualifying among the Chasers (average: 5.9). 
Remember, though: Starting well is one thing. Finishing well is totally different. Hamlin has a golden chance to prove himself as championship material here.
Prediction: Championship Four
-Kevin Harvick: Two wins ... Phoenix, Bristol 2
There are issues on this team with the pit crew -- he led 214 laps at Darlington, but had to rally back after a bad stop just to finish second -- but the 2014 champion hasn't let that deter him too much. 
Harvick's average finish is 8.5, best among the Chase field. Brad Keselowski is the only other driver in single digits (9.7). It will serve him well.
Prediction: Championship Four. Someone has to spoil the Toyota party, and Harvick is capable.
-Carl Edwards: Two wins ... Bristol 1, Richmond 1
The driver of the No. 19 Arris Toyota led the most laps in each of his wins, but they won't be returning to either track in the Chase. Those wins completed a three-week stretch where Edwards led the bulk of his laps on the season -- 551 of 742.
In the 10 races to the Chase, his average finish is 16.9, including 32nd at Richmond on Saturday. 
Prediction: Round of 8
-Martin Truex Jr.: Two wins ... Charlotte, Darlington
The No. 78 became part of the Toyota camp in 2016, and the difference has been clear in the first multi-win season of Truex Jr.'s career. We won't forget his other-worldly showing at Charlotte, and they return there to start the second round of the Chase.
Don't expect him to repeat that, but momentum is on the side of the 78 camp with a third at Richmond that nicely followed up the Darlington victory.
Prediction: Championship Four
-Jimmie Johnson: Two wins ... Atlanta, Auto Club
Since his wins that moved him past Dale Earnhardt on the all-time career list with 77, Johnson has fallen on seriously hard times. In the race to the Chase, Johnson not only has four finishes of 33rd or worse, but he finished last (40th at Watkins Glen) for the first time in his Cup career.
Over the last 10 races, the 48 is averaging a finish of 19.5. Title No. 7 will be waiting at least one more year.
Prediction: Round of 12
-Matt Kenseth: Two wins ... Dover, Loudon
Even though he's been part of a wildly successful season at JGR, Kenseth hasn't done much since his Loudon victory. Despite qualifying well at both Bristol 2 and Richmond 2, the finishes have been 37th and 38th, respectively. For the season, he's 13th out of the 16 Chasers in average finish (15.4).
With a return trip to both of his wins on tap, he'll need repeat performances just to keep going.
Prediction: Round of 8
-Joey Logano: One win ... Michigan 1
The second driver of the Penske camp hasn't been overly spectacular, but delivered solid finishes in the stretch drive. Logano has been consistent, finishing 10th in three of the last four races, sandwiched around a fifth at Darlington.
That's the kind of momentum that advances drivers through the Chase.
Prediction: Round of 8
-Kurt Busch: One win ... Pocono 1
The driver of the No. 41 for Stewart-Haas Racing hasn't been running well since his Pocono win. Busch the Elder has just one top-5 run since then (fourth at Kentucky), and his average finish is 16.5. It's made worse with crashes at Bristol 2 (38th) and Darlington (34th) in the last four weeks.
Prediction: Round of 12
-Kyle Larson: One win ... Michigan 2
Once he finally got his first career win three weeks ago, Larson has followed up with a third at Darlington and second at Richmond. He's led laps in all three (101 total) and it's a building block for good things ahead.
Prediction: Round of 12
-Tony Stewart: One win ... Sonoma
In his final season as a full-time driver, Stewart left all of us with a beautiful memory when he won for the third time in Northern California. Two passes on the final lap in a duel with Hamlin doesn't normally happen there.
Stewart's stuck on 49 career wins. I'm sorry to say he's not going to make 50 or get a shot at title No. 4, not with three finishes in the 30s in the last four weeks.
Prediction: Round of 16
-Chris Buescher: One win ... Pocono 2
Let's get him out of the way. Buescher deserves hearty congratulations for making the Chase field.
He has a fifth at Bristol 2 on his season resume, but runs like the last three -- 35th at Michigan, 17th at Darlington and 24th at Richmond 2 will not advance him very far. He's with the big boys now.
Prediction: Round of 16
-Austin Dillon: No wins
In his third season as a full-time Cup driver, Dillon is starting to come into his own. He has four top-5 runs on the season, the most in his career. That includes a career-best third at Talladega and fourth at Martinsville, which will both be run in the Chase.
Prediction: Round of 12 with potential to go one more as long as the top-10s are there.
-Jamie McMurray: No wins
He has only one top-5 all year, but it was a fourth at Talladega. McMurray has won there before, but will need to go rounds to get a shot at a deeper run.
His last three races: Eighth, 15th, seventh. 
Prediction: Round of 16
And finally...
Chase Elliott: No wins
The heralded rookie started the year with a bang by winning the pole for the Daytona 500, but wrecked early and finished 37th. 
Elliott's problem: He's way too hard on himself at times, and it's shown up on track. In the 10 races to the Chase, his average finish is 20.4 with four coming 31st or worse.
He's only a rookie, though. He'll get much better.
Prediction: Round of 16.
Next week, we'll look at the XFINITY and Trucks Chase fields.
NEXT WEEK'S RACES
Chicagoland Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Joliet, Illinois
-SPRINT CUP: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps.
2015 champion: Denny Hamlin
-XFINITY SERIES: Drive for Safety 300, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: American Ethanol E15 225, Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5;30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 225 miles, 150 laps,
2015 champion: John Hunter Nemechek.

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