Edwards has shot at erasing bad memory

We all knew the drill. Fans of Carl Edwards knew it all too well.

In one of the best NASCAR Sprint Cup title fights ever witnessed, Edwards and Tony Stewart couldn't have been any closer as the season finale happened at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 20, 2011.

When they left Phoenix, Edwards had a three-point lead over Stewart. It was hanging by a thread, and Carl needed one more performance to hold the Sprint Cup championship trophy.
As things turned out, we got...a tie.

Wait. Ties happen, but you have to break them. So when all was said and done, Stewart's five Chase wins netted him his third championship. Edwards? He only had one.

And now, five years later to the very day, Edwards gets another shot, and it will be much different this time around.

With his win at the multi-hour rain-delayed AAA Texas 500 that finished 41 laps short of the full distance, Edwards has his chance to erase the sadness, the disappointment of his battle with Tony Stewart ending in a tie.

Unlike 2011, Edwards will have three drivers to worry about. Jimmie Johnson is already in, and two more will be joining them in the race for the 2016 Sprint Cup title.

Five years ago, there were mind games. Stewart said he wasn't worthy of being in the Chase when it began, but he went out and won the first two, then closed with three wins in the last four.

The duel between Smoke and Edwards was off the charts in competitive goodness. Here's how they finished in the final three weeks:
-Texas: Stewart won, Edwards second.
-Phoenix: Edwards second, Stewart third (Tony won extra bonus point for leading the most laps).
-Homestead: Stewart won, Edwards second. Stewart gets tiebreaker to crown him as champion.
Stewart will watch from his driver's seat as he races for the final time in the No. 14 for his own Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. And it won't be complicated.

Just win, baby. That, or keep the other challengers behind you.

We have documented here that both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch won at Homestead to claim the Sprint Cup as their own in this system of the Chase. Winning mattered in 2011, and it matters even more now.

But who will join Johnson and Edwards as the other members of the third Championship Four at Homestead? You'd think Harvick would find a way to get in with how much he's owned Phoenix of late -- six wins in the last eight trips with 994 laps led in the last five.

All good streaks must end sometime, but Harvick isn't one for following scripts. That's why he'll be dangerous.

And if we grouped the final four for Homestead right now, the battle is tighter than a car that won't turn anywhere at any track without serious steering wheel abuse.
With Johnson already locked in to Homestead, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch would be the last two who would race for the crown. Lurking around the next curve and eating at their rear bumpers, Matt Kenseth is one point behind and Denny Hamlin is two points back.

And all that talk about Joe Gibbs Racing making Homestead their own championship battle ground would be as shocking as what happened to Hillary Clinton last night.
Past performance is no guarantee for future results.

-On the XFINITY side, the Saturday night race at Phoenix will be one worth watching because it's anyone's guess who's worthy of the Championship Four.
Daniel Suarez, Elliot Sadler, Erik Jones and Blake Koch are in at the moment, but Justin Allgaier is within a point of Koch and Ryan Reed is only five points behind.

A win by a series regular will change everything, but we haven't had one since Suarez at Dover three weeks ago. Thank goodness for the rule changes that will limit Cup drivers' presence in these races starting next season.

-For the Camping World Truck Series, Johnny Sauter has come into this round of the inaugural Chase and stolen all of William Byron's thunder. Byron is still out in front, but the separation from him to Timothy Peters -- who is on the outside looking in -- is exactly five points.

Between Byron, Christopher Bell, Matt Crafton and Peters, it's conceivable any one of them could see their title dreams denied after Phoenix on Friday night.

Let's go racing, folks. The boogity is happening all on its own.

Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @TommyZee81 or @Tomzsports. Email him at tominator19@yahoo.com.

THIS WEEK'S RACES
Phoenix International Raceway (1-mile oval), Avondale, Arizona.
-SPRINT CUP: Can-Am 500, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET, 11:30 a.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 500 kilometers (312 miles), 312 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-XFINITY SERIES: Ticket Galaxy 200, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 200 miles, 200 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Lucas Oil 150, Friday, 8:30 p.m ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 150 miles, 150 laps.
2015 champion: Timothy Peters

Mr. Johnson heads to Homestead

After two years of wondering what's wrong with Jimmie Johnson, we can safely say he's finally got this new Chase thing pretty much down pat.

At a track he's basically dominated in the past, Johnson grabbed another dose of Martinsville Speedway magic and earned his ninth career win Sunday in the Goody's Fast Relief 500 at the paper clip. Another grandfather clock -- the standard trophy the track awards to the race winner -- is nice, but a shot at his seventh championship likely has the driver of the No. 48 a little more excited this week.
Johnson can use the upcoming races at Texas and Phoenix to get himself mentally ready for the mission at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Unlike in years past, where he basically had to stay out of trouble and get a decent-enough finish to claim the checkered flag trophy, Johnson actually has to -- wait for it -- race hard come Nov. 20.
He'll only have three other drivers to worry about, but finishing ahead of them is the only way to guarantee he'll be alongside Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty with the most championships in NASCAR history.
The 41-year-old from El Cajon, Calif., now has 79 career wins, only four behind Cale Yarborough for sixth on the all-time list and five behind Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Allison. Elite company, indeed.
In his 15 full-time seasons in Sprint Cup, the fewest wins Johnson has had is two (2011). With his win at Martinsville, this is the third time the Hendrick Motorsports driver has had four checkered flags in a season (2005, 2014).
So how well will Jimmie really need to do at Homestead? He's finished ninth in each of the last three races there. Not bad, but both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch won to make sure they secured the championship.
Johnson hasn't so much as led a lap at Homestead since 2012. Take it for what it's worth, but it's clearly go time this time around.
There are still two races left in the final round before the Championship 4, but Johnson has dealt a big blow to all four Joe Gibbs Racing cars in their Chase for the title. Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch finished third, fourth and fifth at Martinsville, but Joey Logano is lurking as another potential party spoiler after he finished ninth.
Then again, winning matters, and Carl Edwards -- even though he finished 36th after wrecking Sunday -- still has a shot.
He needs a win, but it's still a shot. Same goes for Harvick and Kurt Busch.
Edwards won at Texas in April. Harvick has won six of the last eight at Phoenix and led 994 laps in the last five trips there.
Strap yourself in for the last two races before we set the final four. Nothing is over until the guy in the flag stand says it is.
Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @TommyZee81 or @Tomzsports. Email him at tominator19@yahoo.com.
THIS WEEK'S RACES
Texas Motor Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Fort Worth, Texas.
-SPRINT CUP: AAA Texas 500, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.
Race distance: 501 miles, 334 laps.
2015 champion: Jimmie Johnson
-XFINITY SERIES: O'Reilly Auto Parts Challenge, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.
Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.
2015 champion: Brad Keselowski
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Longhorn 350, Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN affiliate.
Race distance; 350 kilometers (219 miles), 146 laps.
2015 champion: Erik Jones.

Busch wins crown, Gordon exits with class

An era ended in NASCAR racing Nov. 22. Jeff Gordon, the man of 93 Sprint Cup victories, four titles, and a whole lot of moments that helped the sport blow up in stature nationwide, was among the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

A fifth title was out there for the taking. All Gordon had to do was finish ahead of his three challengers – regardless of where they were in the running order – and close his career with the perfect ending.

Kyle Busch crashed the party and rewrote the script.

Despite missing nearly one-third of the season – 11 of the 36 races – Busch came through and won both the Ford EcoBoost 400 and his first NASCAR Sprint Cup crown. Adding to the history, it was the first Sprint Cup championship for Toyota Racing.

Oh, where to begin to figure out what it all means.

Gordon ended up sixth in his final race of a 22-year career, third among the final four that mattered behind Busch and Kevin Harvick. As he exited the No. 24 Axalta Chevrolet for the final time, there were plenty of hugs and smiles to go around.

Harvick was going for a championship repeat himself, but had no chance of catching Busch on the final restart with seven laps to go. That’s how good the 18 car was when it counted.

As for the fourth contender, Martin Truex Jr. gave it his all, but didn’t have nearly enough to challenge. He led some laps, but finished 12th in the final running order at Homestead.

So through all the controversy, all the craziness, and all the questions, how Busch pulled the feat off was nothing short of remarkable.

 First and most important, Busch had to heal from his nasty injury in the season-opening XFINITY race at Daytona. There was doubt about when he could return from broken bones in his leg and ankle for the longest time.

The rules for his return were simple and very fair. Win a race AND have enough points to get into the top 30 to qualify for the Chase.

Busch was back in time for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway to kick the comeback in motion. Five races later, he met the first requirement, winning on the road course at Sonoma Raceway.

That was the easy part. Picking up enough points was to be much harder.

Funny how more winning helped accelerate the charge to the goal.

Busch’s win at Sonoma started a run of four victories in five weeks. He still didn’t have enough points to get in the top 30, but it certainly helped.

After his seventh-place run at Darlington, Busch was officially in the Chase.

In Year 2 of the 16-driver elimination format, I was genuinely skeptical about Busch’s Chase history, especially because he hadn’t won a race in the final 10 weeks of any season since his rookie year of 2005.

But it didn’t matter.

Other than a 37th at Loudon, Busch came through with finishes that mattered at the perfect times. His runs in the Eliminator round of Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix: fifth, fourth and fourth.

On the final Sunday of a crazy NASCAR season, Busch won when it counted and he has his own Sprint Cup trophy. With Kurt Busch’s title in 2004, Kyle cemented the second pair of brothers in NASCAR history as season champions, joining Terry (1984, 1996) and Bobby Labonte (2000).

Maybe being a new father made him mellower, but Busch’s performance in 2015 proved one thing. Staying focused on the journey and avoiding distractions makes the final destination that much sweeter.

Tom Zulewski will be writing one more column from Las Vegas at the Champion’s Week celebration to honor Kyle Busch on Dec. 4. Follow him on Twitter @Tomzsports.

Rain finalizes Championship Four

After trying for more than nine hours to finish the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday night, the rain ended up cutting the 312-lap race short and giving the victory to Dale Earnhardt Jr.
More importantly, the three drivers who will join Jeff Gordon and race for the 2015 Sprint Cup title next weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway were set. Joy was abundant in several camps, disappointment was strong in others.

Even though Mother Nature had the final say after 219 laps were completed on the 1-mile oval at Phoenix, the story lines for the championship battle in South Florida are already in abundance.
The biggest one of all belongs to Gordon. Stuck on four championships since 2001, the California-born driver, who came in sixth Sunday, was heading toward the twilight of a 22-year career looking like he’d finish with 92 career wins.
Then came Martinsville and Matt Kenseth’s knockout of Joey Logano. Gordon ended up being the unlikely beneficiary of the on-track feud and earned his chance at a fifth crown by winning the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 two weeks ago.
Gordon’s 93rd checkered flag closed the books on an amazing career stat. The driver of the No. 24 for Hendrick Motorsports had only three winless seasons – his rookie year of 1993, 2008 and 2010. He won at Homestead in 2012.
Kevin Harvick had been invincible at Phoenix with four wins in a row, but the rain derailed his bid for another victory despite leading 143 of the 219 laps. His runner-up finish was good enough to keep his dream of repeating as champion alive as he topped the points for the Eliminator round.
When Harvick won his title a year ago, he won at Homestead. As long as he finishes ahead of his challengers, no matter where it is, he’ll hold the big trophy again.
The third driver in the Championship 4 took the most amazing road of them all. Kyle Busch was on the shelf for the first 11 races of the season, but met all of the requirements to get in the Chase, winning four times.
Busch still hasn’t won a Chase race since his rookie year of 2005, but that doesn’t matter now. He was steady throughout the three rounds and is on the edge of matching big brother Kurt with a Sprint Cup trophy.
Other than a 37th-place finish at New Hampshire, Busch was in the top 10 in six of eight Chase races, including fourth at Phoenix to finish two points behind Harvick. He has three top-10 finishes at Homestead in 10 career starts, but the average of the rest is 30.2.
The last member of the quartet that will run for the title is Martin Truex Jr., who is the lone driver of the little team that could, Furniture Row Racing out of Denver. Truex won at Pocono in June to make the Chase and advanced to Homestead by doing all necessary rain dances and beating out Carl Edwards by just five points for the last transfer spot.
Truex was consistent throughout each Chase round, with his worst run a 15th at Kansas.
As his longtime girlfriend Sherry Pollex said on her Twitter account (@SherryPollex), it’s the stuff dreams are made of.
And big dreams are knocking on the door. One 267-lap race is left and has one goal. Finish ahead of your challengers, call yourself a Sprint Cup champion.

Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES
Homestead-Miami Speedway (1.5-mile superspeedway), Homestead, Florida.
-SPRINT CUP: Ford EcoBoost 400, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET/Noon PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps.
2014 champion: Kevin Harvick
-XFINITY SERIES: Ford EcoBoost 300, Saturday, 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps
2014 champion: Matt Kenseth
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Ford EcoBoost 200, Friday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 201 miles, 134 laps.
2014 champion: Darrell Wallace Jr.
We'll take a look at the fight for the XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series titles in the next two posts, so be on the lookout.

Johnson keeps up roll, on point at Phoenix

As we get ready for the penultimate race of the 2015 NASCAR season, the black flag award goes to my local newspaper again. Upon opening today's sports section, there was no race lineup to be found anywhere.
And the sad part is there are only two races left to run. A champion is going to be crowned next weekend at Homestead.
For the race fan in all of us, a checkered flag goes to Jimmie Johnson for following up his run of success from last week at Texas with a pole run for the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International/Jeff Gordon Raceway.
While Johnson looks for another win, those players looking to join Gordon to run for the title at Homestead all have good starting positions.
-Kurt Busch is in must-win mode. He'll start with Johnson on the outside front row.
-Carl Edwards is only seven points behind Martin Truex Jr., who holds the last transfer spot to Homestead. He'll start fourth Sunday.
-Truex Jr. is basically in control of his own destiny, which is a good feeling to have. He starts fifth at Phoenix.
-After missing out on a win last week at Texas despite leading nearly all the laps, Brad Keselowski is also in serious must-win mode. The Miller Lite Ford Fusion goes off from 18th on Sunday.
-Kevin Harvick is also in control of his fate and has the resume at Phoenix to come in with extreme confidence. He'll be looking for his fifth straight win at PIR and sixth in the last seven trips from the No. 8 starting spot.
-Kyle Busch still hasn't won a Chase race since 2005, but he's the clubhouse leader for Homestead as they head to Sunday. The No. 18 M&Ms Crispy Toyota starts 10th at Phoenix.
-And then there's Joey Logano, who's gone from one extreme to the other. After getting taken out by Matt Kenseth at Martinsville, bad karma bit him in the backside after a blown tire led to a 40th-place finish at Texas. Logano starts 14th at Phoenix and absolutely needs to win to get to Homestead.
Here's a link with how all 43 cars will line up for the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 on Sunday

Johnson wins at Texas, shakes up Chase

After all the chaos from a crazy week of NASCAR discussion, from so-called “driver codes” to debate over Matt Kenseth’s two-race suspension, Sunday finally arrived and a key race happened at Texas Motor Speedway.
Brad Keselowski looked like he’d be a lock to join Jeff Gordon in the championship four at Homestead-Miami Speedway, leading 312 of 334 laps in the AAA Texas 500. There was one small problem at the end, though.

Jimmie Johnson made sure Keselowski didn’t lead the last one.
Johnson bided his time after a restart, survived several block attempts, and took the lead from Keselowski with four laps to go to win at Texas, his 75th Sprint Cup victory. The effects were felt far and wide for Keselowski, who now finds himself on the outside looking in instead of getting ready to race at Homestead for his second championship in four seasons.
Keselowski is 19 points behind Martin Truex Jr., who holds the last coveted transfer spot to be in the Championship 4. His Penske Racing teammate, Joey Logano – the man who initiated all the hubbub and discussion after getting wrecked by Kenseth at Martinsville last week – had a far worse day, blowing out a left-rear tire nine laps in, wrecking and finishing 40th.
With only next week’s race at Phoenix left to settle the quartet who will run for the championship, the mission is crystal-clear for Keselowski and Logano.
Win on the 1-mile oval in the desert or watch title aspirations disappear. And the odds of either one getting it at Phoenix are long, mainly because Kevin Harvick has won four in a row and five of the last six there.
As I sifted through the radio chatter, social media ranting, and general white noise over the Logano vs. Kenseth incident, two very large thoughts popped into my head.
First, there were still 47 laps left at Martinsville when Logano’s No. 22 car was deposited into the Turn 4 wall by Kenseth. Logano had led 207 laps up to that point, but Jeff Gordon had a strong car that was better on longer runs.
It was far from a lock that Logano would have gotten to Victory Lane if Kenseth didn’t get to him first, which he did.
Second, NASCAR’s punishment of Kenseth wasn’t surprising, yet left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Logano took out Kenseth as both drivers were racing for a win at Kansas, and Kenseth was none too pleased, calling the 25-year-old a “liar” when Logano was quoted as saying he didn’t wreck him on purpose.
NASCAR chairman Brian France weighed in and said he didn’t see any problems with that incident, calling it “quintessential NASCAR” on the “SiriusXM Speedway” show the day after it happened.
Fast forward to Kenseth’s revenge, and the reactions from the big bosses did a flip-flop of sorts, depending on which side of the fence the fans felt was theirs to take.
But there was one major difference in Kenseth’s approach at Martinsville. He was nowhere near in contention for a victory, so NASCAR had no real choice but to hand down the punishment it did.
Kenseth had a right to feel the way he did after what happened at Kansas. He went from a realistic shot at a victory – something NASCAR put a premium on with the revised version of the Chase – to getting eliminated from contention at Talladega the following week.
But his takeout of Logano at Martinsville stepped far over the line of competition and moved into the “eye-for-an-eye” category.
You take me out? That’s fine. But I’ll make darn sure you don’t get a title shot yourself, no matter where I’m at in the running order.
Consequences be damned, I guess.
With Logano’s misfortune at Texas, it was the final capper to one of the sadder stories in recent NASCAR history. The sport has been losing fans at the track and on television, and wild-west style justice incidents haven’t helped.
It’s about time someone took a stand for sanity. Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat like this ever again.

Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

Phoenix International Raceway (1-mile oval), Avondale, Arizona.

-SPRINT CUP: Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 500 kilometers (312 miles), 312 laps.

2014 champion: Kevin Harvick

-XFINITY SERIES: DAV 200, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 200 miles, 200 laps.

2014 champion: Brad Keselowski

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Lucas Oil 150, Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 150 miles, 150 laps.

2014 champion: Erik Jones

Side note on the NCWTS race: Jones has his championship fate firmly in his own hands. He leads two-time defending champion Matt Crafton by 17 points and Tyler Reddick by 21 heading to Phoenix.

Kenseth suspension worth the effort?

We had to wait a bit longer than normal for NASCAR's penalty police to hand down the punishment for Matt Kenseth after his blatant, deliberate wreck of race leader Joey Logano on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway.
The verdict is in, and Kenseth has been sent to the sidelines for the next two races. No Texas. No Phoenix. A definite disruption in the force of what had been a pretty special playoff format that's leaving more questions behind with every incident, on-track or off.
It isn't hard to figure out why it happened. Three weeks ago at Kansas, Logano turned Kenseth sideways in the closing laps and won the race. Kenseth didn't advance after the Contender round and was seething over what happened.
Kenseth called Logano a "liar" at one point over description of the Kansas incident. On Sunday, the 2003 champion got his revenge.
But what was the real cost? According to the rules, Logano still has two more shots to advance to the four-driver championship fight at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He'll probably need a win at Texas or Phoenix, but he was going for four in a row before Kenseth got to him and took him for a ride into the wall at NASCAR's shortest track.
What's to stop Logano from getting right back on the bump and getting to Victory Lane again? Only one person -- Joey himself.
Some of my media brethren have written and discussed how NASCAR is starting to blur the dividing line between sport and entertainment. Kyle Petty called the Kenseth-Logano incident "a black eye" for the sport.
It was a punch that certainly wobbled the character a bit, but the fans are talking about it. Many vow to never return to buying tickets or watching the races on TV, but they certainly know how to vent on social media.
And there are just as many, if not more, who would give Kenseth a pat on the back in appreciation if they could. Yes, NASCAR had to hand down some sort of punishment over what happened. It would have been absolutely insane if they let him off with a fine and no suspension.
Unlike at Kansas, Kenseth was multiple laps down at Martinsville after getting tangled with Brad Keselowski, Logano's teammate. He had intent to take out Logano and did so. Justice served, racer style.
Here's one last thought. If "boys have at it" is the operating mantra for NASCAR, drivers need to quit complaining when incidents like the ones at Martinsville happen.
It may be the "wild, wild West," as Denny Hamlin described, but it beats the alternative.
If Logano can win either of the next two races and get his title shot again at Homestead, it will only prove one thing. Tough times don't last. Tough racers always do, and Logano can fit that bill perfectly in the days to come.

Busting out the Chase crystal ball

After 26 weeks of stories and news that went to the borderline edge of amazing -- from Kevin Harvick's early dominance to Kurt Busch's winning to Kyle Busch's amazing winning -- the 16 drivers looking to hold the Sprint Cup trophy are set to go after the 2015 title of champion.

The usual cast of characters are in the field, along with some interesting surprise guests. For those who may be new to the latest incarnation of NASCAR's playoffs, the field gets whittled down in three-race chunks. In all cases, a win is an automatic ticket to the next round, from Challenger to Contender to Eliminator

Here's my look at the Chase field with semi-coherent predictions on how they'll fare:

-Jimmie Johnson: With the contract extension signed, sealed and delivered for two more seasons, Johnson can get back to what he does best -- ruling the roost in the Chase.

Average finish in last 10 races: 13.5.

The first time at Chase tracks (2015): Won at Dover, 22nd at Loudon.

A sweep of the Monster Mile will be key, and Johnson's only won three of the last four there and 10 in his career. The timing couldn't be better to advance, but he won't last past the Contender round.

-Matt Kenseth: Part of the JGR stable that's been absolutely on fire. It's been 12 years since his only title, but the driver of the No. 20 is poised for a serious run.

Average finish in last 10 races: 11.1. Three wins, but a 42nd at Bristol.

The first time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Charlotte and Martinsville, 39th at Dover.

As hot as all of the Gibbs cars have been, Toyota's got a real shot to have its first Sprint Cup champion driver. Kenseth is the one who has best shot of the group.

Prediction: Championship round.

-Kyle Busch: Easily the best driver story of 2015. Four wins -- in five weeks -- and out for the first 11 races to heal from a broken foot and fractured leg.

Average finish in last 10 races: 7.1

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Loudon, 36th at Dover.

Like Kenseth, as long as Busch gets past Dover in good shape, he'll be fine.

Prediction: Championship round.

-Joey Logano: Made final round a year ago, is on even better roll than Kyle Busch.

Average finish in last 10 races: 6.6. Two wins (Watkins Glen, Bristol), two runner-ups, one third, two fourths.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Martinsville, 33rd at Talladega.

With the roll Logano's been on, it'll be a bit of a shock if he isn't back among the final four again.

Prediction: Out in Contender round, but just barely.

-Kevin Harvick: Defending champion, and had to earn it by winning at Homestead, which is why this Chase playoff system works.

Average finish in last 10: 8.6.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Phoenix, 9th at Charlotte.

Had to do a double-take, but you read it right. Eight of the 10 Chase tracks are repeat stops, and Harvick wasn't outside the top 10 at any of them.

And even more amazing. Harvick's two wins came early in the year, but he's also been runner-up 10 times on the season. I can't imagine him not getting back to the final four.

Prediction: Repeats as Sprint Cup champion.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Is this finally the year for Junior Nation to revel in their guy winning a Sprint Cup crown? There's always room to dream.

Average finish in last 10: 9.6. Win at Daytona.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Talladega, 43rd at Phoenix.

A sweep of NASCAR's biggest track will be reason to party, but that's as far as the celebration goes.

Prediction: Out in Eliminator round.

-Kurt Busch: Like little brother Kyle, didn't race the full year. Unlike Kyle, Kurt had to deal with a NASCAR-imposed suspension for legal issues in a case of alleged domestic violence.

While Kyle won in his fifth race back, Kurt won a pole in just his second race of 2015.

Average finish in last 10: 13.0

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Phoenix, 31st at Dover.

Prediction: Out in Challenger round.

-Carl Edwards: He may not do the Twitter thing, but he's got the winning thing down cold. Has memory of 2011 tie with Tony Stewart to eradicate from his soul, and Edwards is in the right place to do it.
Average finish in last 10: 10.8.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Charlotte, 32nd at Talladega.
As stated earlier, Toyota's got a chance to be a Sprint Cup-winning manufacturer. Edwards has the desire to erase some bad history from the memory banks.
Prediction: Championship round.
Due to time restrictions, the lower half of the playoff field gets the quickie capsule analysis.
-Brad Keselowski: 2012 champion with one win on year at Fontana.
Average finish in last 10: 8.1. Only blip: a 29th at Daytona.
First time at Chase tracks (2015); 2nd at Martinsville and Loudon, 22nd at Talladega.
Prediction: Contender round.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Win came at Pocono, only the third of Truex's Sprint Cup career. Not exactly rolling into Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 18.7.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Talladega and Charlotte, 12th at Loudon
Prediction: Contender round.
-Denny Hamlin: This is one pick I may be fooled on, and his knee injury plays a part. He was sixth at Richmond, but that track isn't in the Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 9.1
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Martinsville, 41st at Kansas.
Prediction: Eliminator round.
-Jamie McMurray: Has started and finished consistently on year -- 15.1 to 15.0 -- but it's go time now.
Average finish in last 10: 18.0
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 2nd at Phoenix, 26th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round
-Jeff Gordon: It's bad enough one of the legends of NASCAR hasn't won in 2015, but he's at least got one more chance to win his fifth Cup crown to close out an amazing career.
Average finish in last 10: 16.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Kansas, 31st at Talladega.
Prediction: Eliminator round
-Ryan Newman: One of the most interesting stories of the last three seasons. The guy doesn't win and doesn't lead a ton of laps, but he's near the front on a consistent basis.
Average finish in last 10: 13.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Phoenix, 27th at Martinsville.
Prediction: Eliminator round (and if he goes deep again, I apologize in advance).
-Clint Bowyer: Shoved aside the distraction of the closure of Michael Waltrip Racing and put a fifth Toyota in the Chase field. He's looking to make an impression for 2016 and beyond.
Average finish in last 10: 15.6
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 9th at Dover, 34th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round.
-Paul Menard: This year's answer to Aric Almirola despite not winning a race. He's led one lap all season and has one win in 317 Cup starts, so it will be a miracle if he escapes out of the first round.
Average finish in last 10: 18.2.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Talladega, 41st at Texas.
Prediction: Challenger round.
And with that, let the Chase insanity begin.
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