Harvick rules Loudon, takes pressure off

He needed to work some magic at Dover a year ago to get to the second round of the Chase, but Kevin Harvick won't have to worry this time around.

Harvick didn't lead a lot of laps at the Magic Mile, but he held on and held off Matt Kenseth to win the Bad Boy Off Road 300 on Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and earn his ticket into the second round of the Chase.
After a 20th-place finish at Chicagoland Speedway in last week's Chase opener, Harvick made sure there wouldn't be a repeat of last year's New Hampshire race, where he ran out of fuel while leading in the late stages.
Harvick pulled a win out of the fire at Dover and advanced back then. He won't need to worry about it this time around.
The driver of the No. 4 that had ditech.com on the hood qualified 19th and didn't get to the front until lap 232 during a green-flag pit stop cycle. But when the race's sixth and last caution came out at lap 292 when Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Reed Sorenson got together, Harvick didn't miss his opportunity.
With Matt Kenseth alongside, Harvick timed his restart to perfection and led the final six circuits around the 1.058-mile track, denying Kenseth his third straight Cup win at Loudon.
And the lobster was probably extra-tasty for him, especially with title hopes still alive.
As for the rest of the standings, it's time to get into survival mode with the first elimination of four lurking at the Monster Mile at Dover next week.
Kyle Larson, who finished 10th on Sunday, has the final transfer spot. His cushion is slim and he has company knocking hard on the door. Austin Dillon (16th) and Jamie McMurray (19th) are only five points behind heading to Dover.
Heck, even Tony Stewart -- who was the first car a lap down in 23rd -- still has a shot. He's only 11 points off the pace.
We know it's not the most relevant thing to point it out, but hey, it's fun to mention. Here's how those on the edge did at Dover on May 15th.
-Larson finished second after qualifying 23rd. He led 85 laps in the AAA Drive for Autism 400, but Kenseth won.
-McMurray was five laps down in 21st.
-Dillon was involved in an accident at lap 185 and finished 33rd.
-Stewart had suspension issues and ended up 34th.
And as we suspected -- and probably just about everyone else did, too -- when the Chase started, it's win or else for Chris Buescher. He's 30 points behind Larson.
In the historic first Chase races of the lower series, the XFINITY VisitMyrtleBeach.com 300 at Kentucky Speedway was a surprising, entertaining affair that Elliott Sadler found a way to win.
The radio broadcast on Performance Racing Network mentioned Sadler was none too pleased he didn't receive any extra bonuses for being the points leader in the regular season -- he was 59 ahead of second-place Daniel Suarez -- so he took out his frustration in the best way possible.
Sadler only led 11 laps, but held on to beat Suarez by just .243 seconds and advance to the second round.
From starting six points behind Erik Jones -- who had four wins to Sadler's two in the regular season -- Sadler can relax and go all-out now at Dover and Charlotte to add to the momentum.
Jones, despite leading 100 laps, got caught up in a wreck with Ty Dillon at lap 189 and went from the penthouse to a 28th-place finish. He's on the outside looking in as they head to Dover, but only three points behind Blake Koch, who was 11th at Kentucky.
For its first official Chase race, the Camping World Truck Series showed us why William Byron should be taken seriously as a likely holder of the championship trophy at Homestead in November. The driver for Kyle Busch Motorsports led 161 of the 175 laps and held off teammate Christopher Bell by less than a half-second to win the UNOH 175 at New Hampshire. It was Byron's sixth victory of the year.
As for the rest of the Chasers, the separation after Loudon is paper-thin. Matt Crafton was third behind Byron and Bell and is second in points. Add in Bell, John Hunter Nemechek, Timothy Peters, Johnny Sauter and Ben Kennedy, and the whole group -- second through seventh -- is separated by just 11 points total.
Only Daniel Hemric is in must-win mode now after he finished 28th due to an early-race spin and brake issues. Two drivers will be eliminated after Talladega on Oct. 22.
But in between comes my favorite truck race of the year. The DC Solar 350 is coming to Las Vegas on Saturday night, and if Matt Crafton can break his hex that we discussed here last week, it will push him to the second round and end a big-time hex that's going on its ninth season.
In case you missed it, Crafton has finished second three times (2009, 2011, 2012) and third twice (2008, 2014) at Las Vegas. He won the pole a year ago, but finished eighth.
All the more reason to get your tickets and get down there for the race.
Tom Zulewski will be reporting live from the DC Solar 350 at Las Vegas. Follow him on Twitter @TommyZee81 or @Tomzsports. Email also welcome to tominator19@yahoo.com.
NEXT WEEK'S RACES
Dover International Speedway (1-mile oval), Dover, Delaware.
-SPRINT CUP: Citizen Soldier 400, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 400 miles, 400 laps.
2015 champion: Kevin Harvick
-XFINITY SERIES: Drive Sober 300, Saturday, 3 p.m. ET/Noon PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 200 miles, 200 laps.
2015 champion: Regan Smith
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: DC Solar 350, Las Vegas Motor Speedway (1.5-mile, D-shaped oval), Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or  your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 350 kilometers (219 miles), 146 laps.
2015 champion: John Wes Townley.

Truex Jr. wins again, everybody in high gear to Chase

As the Chase for the Sprint Cup, 2016 edition, got under way Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway, the first shot in the title hunt came from none other than ... Martin Truex Jr.

Yeah, Jimmie Johnson has ruled this time of year in the past. Kyle Busch is the defending champion, but he doesn't do much when title time comes around until it's the right time to do it.

But they didn't come close to what Truex did at Chicago. The No. 78 found another gear, rallied late, and won the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400. Truex won for the third time this season and got a fairly huge break when a post-race laser inspection station failure was small enough to stay away from an "encumbered victory." 

Translation: Everyone on the 78 team can breathe again knowing they're safely through to the round of 12.,

Among the other highlights: Johnson led the most laps at Chicago (118), but ended up 12th. With the first of three races done in the opening round, Tony Stewart (16th) has the last transfer spot, a point ahead of Austin Dillon, who came in 13th, and Kevin Harvick, who was a lap down in 20th.

Michigan 2 race winner Kyle Larson was the first car a lap down in 18th, and he's two points behind Stewart.

As for Chris Buescher, he's holding up the rear, 12 points behind Stewart, after finishing 28th.

With Race No. 2 of the first round of the Cup Chase on deck, the fields are officially set for the first Chase battles in the XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series. Here's a quick summary of who's in the running for the title.

XFINITY

1. Erik Jones. Four wins: Bristol 1, Dover, Iowa 2, Chicago.

He may be heading to Furniture Row's second Cup team in 2017, but Jones has every intention of making a last splash before he leaves. Already has a six-point cushion on the field.

2. Elliott Sadler. Two wins: Talladega, Darlington

Leads all Chasers in the field with 23 top-10 finishes and comfortably led the points for the regular season. He'll be going deep as a serious title contender.

3. Daniel Suarez. One win: Michigan

Take away his win where he led 62 laps, and the second-year Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led a combined 23 circuits in the other 25 races. Because he has to endure seeing Kyle Busch on track whenever the mood hits, that stat can be forgiven.

And now, the rest with best finish listed.

4. Justin Allgaier: Second at Talladega, Daytona 2, Bristol 2.

In the 10 races to the Chase, Allgaier's worst run was 11th at Darlington and his average finish was 6.0. He's a dark horse worth watching.

5. Ty Dillon: Second at Richmond 1, Iowa 1 and 2.

Crashed at Bristol 2, but wasn't in any real danger of missing Chase. Has averaged a 10th-place finish since then (four races). Will need to pick it up to contend.

6. Brendan Gaughan: Second at Road America.

A win on the road course would have been nice for his standing, but Gaughan has to do better on the 1.5-mile tracks to have a title shot. Five of the seven Chase races will be run from that distance, and his average finish has been 11th in six other tries this season.

7, Brennan Poole: Third at Talladega and Road America.

The Talladega finish was Poole's first top-5 of the year, but it came in the eighth race. With only seven races in the Chase, he has to get going after finishing 21st at Chicago.

8. Brandon Jones: Sixth at Las Vegas

He's the only driver other than Blake Koch without a top-5 run in the regular season. Gotta get at least one to be considered a contender.

9. Darrell Wallace Jr.: Second at Dover

Bubba hasn't been very strong of late. He hasn't finished on the lead lap in six of the last 10 races and was two laps down at Chicagoland while finishing 20th.

10. Ryan Reed: Fifth at Road America

The native of Bakersfield, California has a sixth, ninth and 10th on his season resume. Everything else is 11th or worse.

11. Ryan Sieg: Third at Daytona 2.

Sieg's only other top-10 showing was 10th at Texas. Moving on...

12. Blake Koch: Eighth at Richmond, Bristol 2.

Add in a ninth in the season opener at Daytona, and you have Koch's season in a nutshell. Next?

CAMPING WORLD TRUCKS

1. William Byron. Five wins: Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Kentucky, Pocono

Byron doesn't turn 19 years old until Nov. 29. He drives for Kyle Busch Motorsports. That's all you need to know.

Other than engine issues at Atlanta (32nd) and a crash at Chicago (30th), Byron has been outside the top 10 only three other times. Prime contender for the title.

2. John Hunter Nemechek. Two wins: Atlanta, Canadian Tire.

The win on the road course near Toronto on Sept. 4 gave Nemechek a few more enemies than he would have liked. Voted the most popular driver in the series last season, Nemechek shoved Cole Custer to the grass on the final lap, and the pair crossed the finish line together off the track.

The result: Custer isn't in the Chase and the debate over Nemechek's move will be talked about all the way to Homestead.

3. Matt Crafton. Two wins: Dover, Charlotte.

Crafton went back-to-back with his wins this season and is the only repeat champion (2012, 2013) in Truck Series history. Bigger question: Can he break his hex at Las Vegas, which is the second race of the first round in the inaugural Chase?

His average finish there in the last seven visits is 5.1, including three seconds and two thirds. A win Oct. 1, after all the ThorSport race shop went through with a fire in June, will be a big motivator for title No. 3.

4. Johnny Sauter. One win: Daytona.

After three races where he finished 28th, 32nd and 16rh following the Daytona win, Sauter has been outside the top 10 just once -- a 13th at Eldora.

5. Christopher Bell. One win: Gateway.

Teammate to William Byron, Bell crashed at Michigan and finished 24th, but rebounded nicely with a fifth at Canadian Tire and fourth at Chicago. He'll need those kinds of efforts to advance.

6. Ben Kennedy. One win: Bristol

The son of ISC boss Lesa France Kennedy, the 24-year-old's only other top-5 run was a fourth at Texas. The series returns there Nov. 4, and the Red Horse Racing driver will be a contender for the title if he can get out of the first round.

7. Daniel Hemric: Second at Chicagoland.

Beyond his showing Friday, Hemric has six (!!) third-place runs on his season to date. Keep that up, and he'll be fine, even without a win.

8. Timothy Peters: Second at Michigan

The second driver for Red Horse Racing has covered each of the top five positions without a win. Peters was third at Atlanta, fourth at Pocono and fifth at Martinsville. He hasn't finished on the lead lap just once all season -- 34 laps down in 27th at Eldora.

Enjoy the rest of the Chase and may your favorite driver fare well enough to hold the big trophy at Homestead.

Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @Tomzsports or @TommyZee81. Email him at tominator19@yahoo.com.

THIS WEEK'S RACES

New Hampshire Motor Speedway (1.058-mile oval), Loudon, New Hampshire.

-SPRINT CUP: New England 300, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 laps, 317.4 miles.

2015 champion: Matt Kenseth

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: UNOH 175, Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 175 laps, 185.15 miles.

-XFINITY SERIES: VisitMyrtleBeach.com 300, Kentucky Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Saturday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2015 champion: Ryan Blaney.

It's time for another Chase

After 26 races and what seemed like 26 million different story lines that ebbed and flowed faster than the stock market, NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup is officially on to determine the 2016 champion.

And for the first time in recent memory, in spite of dominance in the Toyota camp, it can be said that at least nine drivers could garner a realistic chance at holding the waved checkered flag trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway in November.

With exactly 10 races left in the season, here are a few good thoughts on the field, who will be talked about as they stand right now heading to Chicagoland Speedway. Please be kind and remember ... no wagering.

-Brad Keselowski: Four wins ... Las Vegas, Talladega, Daytona 2, Kentucky.

The 2012 champion hasn't been totally dominant in his wins this season, having led the most laps only at the Coke Zero 400 (115 of 160). Somehow, BK finds a way to get himself to the front at the times he's supposed to be there.

The No. 2 has no DNFs, and that will be a big key as the Chase moves forward. Don't put too much stock in the win at Talladega, though. When they go there again in six weeks, the fight for survival will be in high gear.

Prediction: Round of 8 

-Kyle Busch: Four wins ... Martinsville, Texas, Kansas, Indianapolis

Our defending champion is one of three drivers to win consecutive races, but the Toyota camp as a whole (read: Joe Gibbs Racing) finished with 13 wins in the regular season. There's no reason to believe Kyle won't be up there again.

Prediction: Championship Four...again.

-Denny Hamlin: Three wins ... Daytona 1, Watkins Glen, Richmond 2

He may have fallen just short in leading the most laps to Martin Truex Jr. (193-189), but Hamlin sent himself off to the Chase with huge momentum after his win at Richmond on Saturday night. Not only is he alone in third place, but the JGR driver is best in qualifying among the Chasers (average: 5.9). 

Remember, though: Starting well is one thing. Finishing well is totally different. Hamlin has a golden chance to prove himself as championship material here.

Prediction: Championship Four

-Kevin Harvick: Two wins ... Phoenix, Bristol 2

There are issues on this team with the pit crew -- he led 214 laps at Darlington, but had to rally back after a bad stop just to finish second -- but the 2014 champion hasn't let that deter him too much. 

Harvick's average finish is 8.5, best among the Chase field. Brad Keselowski is the only other driver in single digits (9.7). It will serve him well.

Prediction: Championship Four. Someone has to spoil the Toyota party, and Harvick is capable.

-Carl Edwards: Two wins ... Bristol 1, Richmond 1

The driver of the No. 19 Arris Toyota led the most laps in each of his wins, but they won't be returning to either track in the Chase. Those wins completed a three-week stretch where Edwards led the bulk of his laps on the season -- 551 of 742.

In the 10 races to the Chase, his average finish is 16.9, including 32nd at Richmond on Saturday. 

Prediction: Round of 8

-Martin Truex Jr.: Two wins ... Charlotte, Darlington

The No. 78 became part of the Toyota camp in 2016, and the difference has been clear in the first multi-win season of Truex Jr.'s career. We won't forget his other-worldly showing at Charlotte, and they return there to start the second round of the Chase.

Don't expect him to repeat that, but momentum is on the side of the 78 camp with a third at Richmond that nicely followed up the Darlington victory.

Prediction: Championship Four

-Jimmie Johnson: Two wins ... Atlanta, Auto Club

Since his wins that moved him past Dale Earnhardt on the all-time career list with 77, Johnson has fallen on seriously hard times. In the race to the Chase, Johnson not only has four finishes of 33rd or worse, but he finished last (40th at Watkins Glen) for the first time in his Cup career.

Over the last 10 races, the 48 is averaging a finish of 19.5. Title No. 7 will be waiting at least one more year.

Prediction: Round of 12

-Matt Kenseth: Two wins ... Dover, Loudon

Even though he's been part of a wildly successful season at JGR, Kenseth hasn't done much since his Loudon victory. Despite qualifying well at both Bristol 2 and Richmond 2, the finishes have been 37th and 38th, respectively. For the season, he's 13th out of the 16 Chasers in average finish (15.4).

With a return trip to both of his wins on tap, he'll need repeat performances just to keep going.

Prediction: Round of 8

-Joey Logano: One win ... Michigan 1

The second driver of the Penske camp hasn't been overly spectacular, but delivered solid finishes in the stretch drive. Logano has been consistent, finishing 10th in three of the last four races, sandwiched around a fifth at Darlington.

That's the kind of momentum that advances drivers through the Chase.

Prediction: Round of 8

-Kurt Busch: One win ... Pocono 1

The driver of the No. 41 for Stewart-Haas Racing hasn't been running well since his Pocono win. Busch the Elder has just one top-5 run since then (fourth at Kentucky), and his average finish is 16.5. It's made worse with crashes at Bristol 2 (38th) and Darlington (34th) in the last four weeks.

Prediction: Round of 12

-Kyle Larson: One win ... Michigan 2

Once he finally got his first career win three weeks ago, Larson has followed up with a third at Darlington and second at Richmond. He's led laps in all three (101 total) and it's a building block for good things ahead.

Prediction: Round of 12

-Tony Stewart: One win ... Sonoma

In his final season as a full-time driver, Stewart left all of us with a beautiful memory when he won for the third time in Northern California. Two passes on the final lap in a duel with Hamlin doesn't normally happen there.

Stewart's stuck on 49 career wins. I'm sorry to say he's not going to make 50 or get a shot at title No. 4, not with three finishes in the 30s in the last four weeks.

Prediction: Round of 16

-Chris Buescher: One win ... Pocono 2

Let's get him out of the way. Buescher deserves hearty congratulations for making the Chase field.

He has a fifth at Bristol 2 on his season resume, but runs like the last three -- 35th at Michigan, 17th at Darlington and 24th at Richmond 2 will not advance him very far. He's with the big boys now.

Prediction: Round of 16

-Austin Dillon: No wins

In his third season as a full-time Cup driver, Dillon is starting to come into his own. He has four top-5 runs on the season, the most in his career. That includes a career-best third at Talladega and fourth at Martinsville, which will both be run in the Chase.

Prediction: Round of 12 with potential to go one more as long as the top-10s are there.

-Jamie McMurray: No wins

He has only one top-5 all year, but it was a fourth at Talladega. McMurray has won there before, but will need to go rounds to get a shot at a deeper run.

His last three races: Eighth, 15th, seventh. 

Prediction: Round of 16

And finally...

Chase Elliott: No wins

The heralded rookie started the year with a bang by winning the pole for the Daytona 500, but wrecked early and finished 37th. 

Elliott's problem: He's way too hard on himself at times, and it's shown up on track. In the 10 races to the Chase, his average finish is 20.4 with four coming 31st or worse.

He's only a rookie, though. He'll get much better.

Prediction: Round of 16.

Next week, we'll look at the XFINITY and Trucks Chase fields.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

Chicagoland Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval), Joliet, Illinois

-SPRINT CUP: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps.

2015 champion: Denny Hamlin

-XFINITY SERIES: Drive for Safety 300, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2015 champion: Kyle Busch

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: American Ethanol E15 225, Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET/5;30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.

Race distance: 225 miles, 150 laps,

2015 champion: John Hunter Nemechek.

Bowyer penalty delivers big hit to Chase hopes

Today may be only Wednesday as this post is being made, but there's even more madness to sort through in regards to the Chase standings.
The biggest insanity came with the announcement that Clint Bowyer was docked 25 points by NASCAR for a P4-level violation, according to the lovely rule book, in opening inspection after Chicagoland Speedway.
The reason: an illegal track bar. There were four sections that were discussed in the violation, so rather than try to explain them here myself, I'll gladly defer to an article written by MRN Radio's Pete Pistone. Each part of the violation is described there.
Bowyer was 19th in the MyAFibRisk.com 400, so he fell to 15th in the points. Even after Kevin Harvick's bad race, Bowyer is now behind the defending Sprint Cup champ in 16th after the penalty was figured in.
Of course, Michael Waltrip Racing -- a team in its final nine weeks of Sprint Cup competition -- is planning to appeal. When you go from only six points behind 12th to 31 back, there's nothing to lose when a chance to advance is at stake.
And while Harvick is still 22 behind Jeff Gordon, the important priority lies ahead for both drivers.
It clearly involves one word. Winning.
As good as Harvick has been this season -- he's finished in the top 10 in 22 of the 27 races -- it would figure the champ doesn't have nearly as much to worry about as Bowyer does despite the post-race shoving match he tried to get into with Jimmie Johnson at Chicagoland.
Bowyer hasn't won a Cup race since Charlotte in October of 2012, 104 races ago. With a deficit this large now, pending the outcome of the penalty appeal, even back-to-back top-5 runs may not help.
The driver of the No. 15 5-Hour Energy Toyota for MWR had his last top-5 run at Bristol last month and was third at Sonoma prior to that.
It's unfortunate the penalties were handed down at this point in the season, but favorites should never be played. NASCAR's rule book may be baffling even to those who cover the Sprint Cup series on a full-time basis, but when something's done wrong, there's no gray area when the right to hold a shiny checkered-flag trophy is on the line.
Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @Tomzsports.

Hamlin wins, Harvick fumes at Chicagoland

With all that went on from the opening race of the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup on Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway, NASCAR fans may need a few extra minutes of water-cooler talk time to process all that went on.
The main exhibit came with Denny Hamlin. He’s part of the red-hot Joe Gibbs Racing team, but no one expected what he pulled off on a perfect day for racing in the Midwest.

Hamlin, torn ACL in his knee and all, not only survived a spin early in the MyAfibRisk.com 400, but led nine laps and took the checkered flag to punch his automatic ticket into the Contender round of the Chase.
Hamlin’s effort leads to Exhibit B, better known as how karma bit defending Sprint Cup champion Kevin Harvick squarely in the backside and dealt a serious blow to his chances of repeating.
Earlier in the week, Harvick flashed some serious bravado by declaring this about the JGR drivers, as written by Kenny Bruce in a story published on NASCAR.com after Chase media days Thursday:
"I wouldn't consider us behind the Gibbs cars," Harvick said. "I've raced against the Gibbs cars. I think we're going to pound them into the ground, that's what I think. Hopefully they can beat themselves."
That certainly didn’t happen Sunday.
Strike one in the bulletin-board wars, not to mention a pretty good pounding, went against Harvick, and pretty badly at that. Hamlin came all the way from 29th – with qualifying rained out, the field was set on speeds from the first practice session – and won the race. Harvick, who started on the pole as fastest from at that same session, got together with Jimmie Johnson, took a hard hit into the wall at lap 139, and finished 42nd, matching his absolute worst finish of the season (Pocono 2).
Adding to the indignity of the moment, it was just the fifth time all year Harvick has finished outside the top 10 in 27 races. To top it all off, the other JGR drivers all finished in the top 10 – Carl Edwards was second, Matt Kenseth finished fifth and Kyle Busch came home in ninth.
Cameras caught Johnson trying to talk with Harvick at his hauler over what happened after the race, but Harvick was in no mood, giving Johnson a few good shoves before his PR guy is shown leading him into a waiting car.
Johnson never made a move toward Harvick to escalate things, and it was probably for the better.
As things stand, Harvick has every right to be mad, but it’s mainly because his mouth wrote the check his car couldn’t cash. With only two races to run before the bottom four in the standings are eliminated, Harvick basically has one mission.
It’s win or get ready to hand off the championship trophy to someone else.
History is on Harvick’s side in the battle to be the champ. One year ago, he had to win at Phoenix to advance to the Championship round at Homestead. Then he had to win at Homestead to win the title, beating Ryan Newman by only a half-second.
That was then. The odds are a lot longer now.
After Chicago, Harvick is 22 points behind Jeff Gordon, who holds the 12th and last transfer spot into the next round. The deficit is not impossible to overcome, but with only two races to do it, a win at either New Hampshire this weekend or Dover on Oct. 4 will take the pressure off.
Harvick was runner-up at Dover in May and finished third at New Hampshire in July, so the experience is there.
In order to overcome the disaster that was Chicagoland, the champ needs to keep his head down, his mouth shut, and do the necessary work to keep his title hopes alive.

Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

NEXT WEEK'S RACES

New Hampshire Motor Speedway (1.058-mile oval), Loudon, New Hampshire.

-SPRINT CUP: Sylvania 300, Sunday, 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 300 laps, 317.4 miles.

2014 champion: Joey Logano

-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: UNOH 175, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 175 laps, 185.15 miles

2014 champion: Cole Custer

-XFINITY SERIES: VisitMyrtleBeach.com 300, Kentucky Speedway (1.5-mile tri-oval), Sparta, Kentucky, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local PRN affiliate.

Race distance: 300 miles, 200 laps.

2014 champion: Brendan Gaughan

Busting out the Chase crystal ball

After 26 weeks of stories and news that went to the borderline edge of amazing -- from Kevin Harvick's early dominance to Kurt Busch's winning to Kyle Busch's amazing winning -- the 16 drivers looking to hold the Sprint Cup trophy are set to go after the 2015 title of champion.

The usual cast of characters are in the field, along with some interesting surprise guests. For those who may be new to the latest incarnation of NASCAR's playoffs, the field gets whittled down in three-race chunks. In all cases, a win is an automatic ticket to the next round, from Challenger to Contender to Eliminator

Here's my look at the Chase field with semi-coherent predictions on how they'll fare:

-Jimmie Johnson: With the contract extension signed, sealed and delivered for two more seasons, Johnson can get back to what he does best -- ruling the roost in the Chase.

Average finish in last 10 races: 13.5.

The first time at Chase tracks (2015): Won at Dover, 22nd at Loudon.

A sweep of the Monster Mile will be key, and Johnson's only won three of the last four there and 10 in his career. The timing couldn't be better to advance, but he won't last past the Contender round.

-Matt Kenseth: Part of the JGR stable that's been absolutely on fire. It's been 12 years since his only title, but the driver of the No. 20 is poised for a serious run.

Average finish in last 10 races: 11.1. Three wins, but a 42nd at Bristol.

The first time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Charlotte and Martinsville, 39th at Dover.

As hot as all of the Gibbs cars have been, Toyota's got a real shot to have its first Sprint Cup champion driver. Kenseth is the one who has best shot of the group.

Prediction: Championship round.

-Kyle Busch: Easily the best driver story of 2015. Four wins -- in five weeks -- and out for the first 11 races to heal from a broken foot and fractured leg.

Average finish in last 10 races: 7.1

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Loudon, 36th at Dover.

Like Kenseth, as long as Busch gets past Dover in good shape, he'll be fine.

Prediction: Championship round.

-Joey Logano: Made final round a year ago, is on even better roll than Kyle Busch.

Average finish in last 10 races: 6.6. Two wins (Watkins Glen, Bristol), two runner-ups, one third, two fourths.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Martinsville, 33rd at Talladega.

With the roll Logano's been on, it'll be a bit of a shock if he isn't back among the final four again.

Prediction: Out in Contender round, but just barely.

-Kevin Harvick: Defending champion, and had to earn it by winning at Homestead, which is why this Chase playoff system works.

Average finish in last 10: 8.6.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Phoenix, 9th at Charlotte.

Had to do a double-take, but you read it right. Eight of the 10 Chase tracks are repeat stops, and Harvick wasn't outside the top 10 at any of them.

And even more amazing. Harvick's two wins came early in the year, but he's also been runner-up 10 times on the season. I can't imagine him not getting back to the final four.

Prediction: Repeats as Sprint Cup champion.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Is this finally the year for Junior Nation to revel in their guy winning a Sprint Cup crown? There's always room to dream.

Average finish in last 10: 9.6. Win at Daytona.

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Talladega, 43rd at Phoenix.

A sweep of NASCAR's biggest track will be reason to party, but that's as far as the celebration goes.

Prediction: Out in Eliminator round.

-Kurt Busch: Like little brother Kyle, didn't race the full year. Unlike Kyle, Kurt had to deal with a NASCAR-imposed suspension for legal issues in a case of alleged domestic violence.

While Kyle won in his fifth race back, Kurt won a pole in just his second race of 2015.

Average finish in last 10: 13.0

First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Phoenix, 31st at Dover.

Prediction: Out in Challenger round.

-Carl Edwards: He may not do the Twitter thing, but he's got the winning thing down cold. Has memory of 2011 tie with Tony Stewart to eradicate from his soul, and Edwards is in the right place to do it.
Average finish in last 10: 10.8.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Charlotte, 32nd at Talladega.
As stated earlier, Toyota's got a chance to be a Sprint Cup-winning manufacturer. Edwards has the desire to erase some bad history from the memory banks.
Prediction: Championship round.
Due to time restrictions, the lower half of the playoff field gets the quickie capsule analysis.
-Brad Keselowski: 2012 champion with one win on year at Fontana.
Average finish in last 10: 8.1. Only blip: a 29th at Daytona.
First time at Chase tracks (2015); 2nd at Martinsville and Loudon, 22nd at Talladega.
Prediction: Contender round.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Win came at Pocono, only the third of Truex's Sprint Cup career. Not exactly rolling into Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 18.7.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Talladega and Charlotte, 12th at Loudon
Prediction: Contender round.
-Denny Hamlin: This is one pick I may be fooled on, and his knee injury plays a part. He was sixth at Richmond, but that track isn't in the Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 9.1
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Martinsville, 41st at Kansas.
Prediction: Eliminator round.
-Jamie McMurray: Has started and finished consistently on year -- 15.1 to 15.0 -- but it's go time now.
Average finish in last 10: 18.0
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 2nd at Phoenix, 26th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round
-Jeff Gordon: It's bad enough one of the legends of NASCAR hasn't won in 2015, but he's at least got one more chance to win his fifth Cup crown to close out an amazing career.
Average finish in last 10: 16.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Kansas, 31st at Talladega.
Prediction: Eliminator round
-Ryan Newman: One of the most interesting stories of the last three seasons. The guy doesn't win and doesn't lead a ton of laps, but he's near the front on a consistent basis.
Average finish in last 10: 13.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Phoenix, 27th at Martinsville.
Prediction: Eliminator round (and if he goes deep again, I apologize in advance).
-Clint Bowyer: Shoved aside the distraction of the closure of Michael Waltrip Racing and put a fifth Toyota in the Chase field. He's looking to make an impression for 2016 and beyond.
Average finish in last 10: 15.6
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 9th at Dover, 34th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round.
-Paul Menard: This year's answer to Aric Almirola despite not winning a race. He's led one lap all season and has one win in 317 Cup starts, so it will be a miracle if he escapes out of the first round.
Average finish in last 10: 18.2.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Talladega, 41st at Texas.
Prediction: Challenger round.
And with that, let the Chase insanity begin.
Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.