Chase push resumes, stress returns

It's been a few days since I've posted anything here, but there's no time like now to get caught up.
The first order of business is to congratulate this weekend's race winners, who all did their thing on road courses. In the XFINITY race Saturday at Road America, Paul Menard won the fuel-mileage gamble, holding off everyone in a final four-lap shootout to win the Road America 180. Four laps may not seem like a huge deal, but the fuel had to last for more than 16 total miles across 14 turns.
Somehow, Menard made it work and won in his home state. Who needs an off weekend when you can sleep in your own bed in addition to doing what you love? A win-win all the way around.
One downer: Park City's Michael Self was the leader at the race's final restart, but faded to 11th. Still his best run in only his fourth XFINITY start.
On Sunday, the Camping World Truck Series headed north of the border to Bowmanville, Ontario and Erik Jones won the Chevy Silverado 250, beating Matt Crafton by 1.665 seconds and claiming the points lead by three over the two-time defending series champion.
Tyler Reddick, who was the points leader at the start of the day, finished 19th and fell to third.
And despite their heavy hearts after last week's death of Justin Wilson, the IndyCar Series had one heck of a great race at Sonoma Raceway as Scott Dixon won the GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma to claim the championship.
Dixon basically stole the title from Juan Pablo Montoya, who ran into difficulty early when he hit Penske Racing teammate Will Power and couldn't recover in time.
Montoya needed to finish fifth to clinch. He ended up sixth. Dixon won the title by having three race wins on the year to Montoya's two.
Meanwhile, the Sprint Cup Series drivers scattered everywhere and enjoyed the final off week of the 2015 season. As the series heads to Darlington for the first of the two remaining races before the Chase field is set, five drivers are still sitting on the proverbial bubble.
As the standings sit at this point, the bubble is slowly becoming a solid rock for Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Menard, Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer. The separation Bowyer enjoys, as discussed in a previous post, is 35 points over Aric Almirola and 37 over Kasey Kahne.
With only the Bojangles Southern 500 and the Federated Auto Parts 400 left to run, the drivers on the outside of the Chase field may need to go after one thing.
A win, and only a win, may be what matters. Points racing is a non-existent phrase in the vocabulary.
After Almirola and Kahne, the rest are so far behind, they may need a road map to find Victory Lane.
Here are the front five drivers not in the Chase and just how much hope they really have of making the playoff: Points behind are in relation to Bowyer:
-Almirola (-35): Hasn't won since the rain-delayed affair at Daytona last July and has exactly one top-5 finish since then, a fifth at Dover in May. It's win or else for the 43, I'm afraid.
-Kahne (-37): Won at Atlanta last year to make the Chase. Sorry to say, but that race was replaced by Darlington, where his average finish in 12 career starts is 16th.
Kahne's best finish of the year was fourth at both Phoenix and Dover. Since an eighth-place finish at Sonoma eight races ago, his best run has been 15th. Like Almirola, it's win or get to testing for 2016.
The remaining drivers in this group are clearly in win-or-else mode.
-Greg Biffle (-83): The Biff hasn't won since Michigan in June of 2013. Over the last 80 races, he's been as high as a runner-up just twice. Not good, and not optimistic he'll snap out of the funk.
-Austin Dillon (-91): Love him or hate him, Dillon is in only his second full-time year in Cup. He put a scare into everyone at Michigan two weeks ago as he led 19 laps -- most in his career to date -- before finishing fourth.
-Kyle Larson (-104): The Northern California native impressed in his rookie season, with eight top-5 finishes, but has only one in his sophomore year, a third at Dover in May. Over the last 10 races, his highest finish was 9th at Indianapolis.
Time to collect the parting gifts and get ready for 2016.
But for the rest of us, it's easy to nitpick on our favorite driver's chances, but winning will absolutely change everything.
Followers and comments are more than welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.
NEXT WEEK'S RACES
Darlington Raceway (1.366-mile egg-shaped oval), Darlington, S.C.
-SPRINT CUP: Bojangles Southern 500, Sunday, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 501.3 miles, 367 laps.
2014 champion: Kevin Harvick
-XFINITY SERIES: VFW Sport Clips Help a Hero 200, Saturday, 3:30 p.m ET/12:30 p.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 200.8 miles, 147 laps.
2014 champion: Chase Elliott
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Off until Sept. 18 for the American Ethanol E15 225 at Chicagoland Speedway.

Who's got best shot at Chase?

With all the talk of Kyle Busch's run from physical therapy to the top 30 in points, it obscured the drivers who are trying to get into the mix for the Chase themselves.
Four wins for Busch in seven weeks certainly can't be ignored, but I'm on the lookout for those who are in desperation mode with only four races to run until the top 16 start the Chase to the 2015 Sprint Cup.
Right now, there are five spots open for those with the big doughnut in the win column. Busch is in the Chase, but he's only six points to the good. As we discussed here after the 18 made the field with a runner-up run at Watkins Glen, things can change in a heartbeat.
Busch was 43rd at Michigan in June, but won at Indianapolis with the new high-drag rules package in the cars. With the package set to go for the 2-mile oval in the Irish Hills west of Detroit -- more air ducts are being mandated to counter the heat issues drivers had to deal with previously -- we're officially in go mode.
And since Busch isn't in the most secure position for the Chase, it only adds to the tension for the non-winners making their runs.
Here's a look at the group in positions 12 through 16 who would fill the field via the current standings:
-Jamie McMurray (23 points ahead of 16th): Has only one top-5 run at Michigan, but finished seventh when they raced there in June. Since then, his best finish has been 11th at Sonoma and was 40th at the Glen. Definitely the wrong time to slump, and he may be secretly looking to put a hex on Busch so he slips back out of the top 30 by Richmond.
Hey, a driver can dream.
-Denny Hamlin (+19): Was 11th in the rain at Michigan and followed up with top-5 runs in three of four races (third at Daytona and Kentucky, fifth at Indianapolis), but has finished 22nd and 27th in the last two weeks.
Hamlin does have two wins at Michigan, but an average finish of 22.1 since the June race in 2011.
-Paul Menard (+10): A serious longshot to make the Chase on a win. The Richard Childress Racing driver has led one lap all year, and that makes Ryan Newman's run from last year look like Richard Petty.
Just to clarify that point: Newman led 41 laps, yet missed the championship by a half-second.
Menard was eighth at Michigan in June, but hasn't been in the top 10 since.
-Jeff Gordon (+8): The four-time champ has been shut out of the win column only three times, but it would be depressing if he missed the Chase in his final season.
Gordon has four top 10s in the last six weeks, but the two that weren't were a 42nd at Indy and 41st last week at Watkins Glen. He is the defending champ of this weekend's race.
-Ryan Newman (+1): As discussed previously, Newman isn't a master of leading laps, and you need them if you want to be in Victory Lane. This year's total: 19, none since Kentucky.
Newman's last win was at the 2013 Brickyard 400. He led 45 laps that day and hasn't come remotely close to that number since.
-Clint Bowyer (the man on the bubble): As long as no non-winner sees Victory Lane in the next four weeks, he'll be fine.
Bowyer has rebounded with three straight top 10s since a 34th at Loudon. With Carl Edwards already in the win column, his next closest challenger for that last Chase spot is Aric Almirola, but he's 50 points behind.
Almirola isn't alone in the fight to get into the Chase. Anyone inside the top 30 not named Kyle Busch can change their fate by getting to Victory Lane at Michigan, Bristol, Darlington or Richmond.
Once the field is set, it's all about surviving and advancing. Time to bring it on.
Tom Zulewski has covered many forms of motor sports in his 18-year career in journalism. Followers and comments are welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.