Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Edwards has shot at erasing bad memory

We all knew the drill. Fans of Carl Edwards knew it all too well.

In one of the best NASCAR Sprint Cup title fights ever witnessed, Edwards and Tony Stewart couldn't have been any closer as the season finale happened at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 20, 2011.

When they left Phoenix, Edwards had a three-point lead over Stewart. It was hanging by a thread, and Carl needed one more performance to hold the Sprint Cup championship trophy.
As things turned out, we got...a tie.

Wait. Ties happen, but you have to break them. So when all was said and done, Stewart's five Chase wins netted him his third championship. Edwards? He only had one.

And now, five years later to the very day, Edwards gets another shot, and it will be much different this time around.

With his win at the multi-hour rain-delayed AAA Texas 500 that finished 41 laps short of the full distance, Edwards has his chance to erase the sadness, the disappointment of his battle with Tony Stewart ending in a tie.

Unlike 2011, Edwards will have three drivers to worry about. Jimmie Johnson is already in, and two more will be joining them in the race for the 2016 Sprint Cup title.

Five years ago, there were mind games. Stewart said he wasn't worthy of being in the Chase when it began, but he went out and won the first two, then closed with three wins in the last four.

The duel between Smoke and Edwards was off the charts in competitive goodness. Here's how they finished in the final three weeks:
-Texas: Stewart won, Edwards second.
-Phoenix: Edwards second, Stewart third (Tony won extra bonus point for leading the most laps).
-Homestead: Stewart won, Edwards second. Stewart gets tiebreaker to crown him as champion.
Stewart will watch from his driver's seat as he races for the final time in the No. 14 for his own Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. And it won't be complicated.

Just win, baby. That, or keep the other challengers behind you.

We have documented here that both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch won at Homestead to claim the Sprint Cup as their own in this system of the Chase. Winning mattered in 2011, and it matters even more now.

But who will join Johnson and Edwards as the other members of the third Championship Four at Homestead? You'd think Harvick would find a way to get in with how much he's owned Phoenix of late -- six wins in the last eight trips with 994 laps led in the last five.

All good streaks must end sometime, but Harvick isn't one for following scripts. That's why he'll be dangerous.

And if we grouped the final four for Homestead right now, the battle is tighter than a car that won't turn anywhere at any track without serious steering wheel abuse.
With Johnson already locked in to Homestead, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch would be the last two who would race for the crown. Lurking around the next curve and eating at their rear bumpers, Matt Kenseth is one point behind and Denny Hamlin is two points back.

And all that talk about Joe Gibbs Racing making Homestead their own championship battle ground would be as shocking as what happened to Hillary Clinton last night.
Past performance is no guarantee for future results.

-On the XFINITY side, the Saturday night race at Phoenix will be one worth watching because it's anyone's guess who's worthy of the Championship Four.
Daniel Suarez, Elliot Sadler, Erik Jones and Blake Koch are in at the moment, but Justin Allgaier is within a point of Koch and Ryan Reed is only five points behind.

A win by a series regular will change everything, but we haven't had one since Suarez at Dover three weeks ago. Thank goodness for the rule changes that will limit Cup drivers' presence in these races starting next season.

-For the Camping World Truck Series, Johnny Sauter has come into this round of the inaugural Chase and stolen all of William Byron's thunder. Byron is still out in front, but the separation from him to Timothy Peters -- who is on the outside looking in -- is exactly five points.

Between Byron, Christopher Bell, Matt Crafton and Peters, it's conceivable any one of them could see their title dreams denied after Phoenix on Friday night.

Let's go racing, folks. The boogity is happening all on its own.

Follow Tom Zulewski on Twitter @TommyZee81 or @Tomzsports. Email him at tominator19@yahoo.com.

THIS WEEK'S RACES
Phoenix International Raceway (1-mile oval), Avondale, Arizona.
-SPRINT CUP: Can-Am 500, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET, 11:30 a.m. PT, NBC. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 500 kilometers (312 miles), 312 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-XFINITY SERIES: Ticket Galaxy 200, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT, NBC Sports Network. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 200 miles, 200 laps.
2015 champion: Kyle Busch
-CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES: Lucas Oil 150, Friday, 8:30 p.m ET/5:30 p.m. PT, Fox Sports 1. Radio: SiriusXM Channel 90 or your local MRN Radio affiliate.
Race distance: 150 miles, 150 laps.
2015 champion: Timothy Peters

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