Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Busting out the Chase crystal ball

After 26 weeks of stories and news that went to the borderline edge of amazing -- from Kevin Harvick's early dominance to Kurt Busch's winning to Kyle Busch's amazing winning -- the 16 drivers looking to hold the Sprint Cup trophy are set to go after the 2015 title of champion.
The usual cast of characters are in the field, along with some interesting surprise guests. For those who may be new to the latest incarnation of NASCAR's playoffs, the field gets whittled down in three-race chunks. In all cases, a win is an automatic ticket to the next round, from Challenger to Contender to Eliminator
Here's my look at the Chase field with semi-coherent predictions on how they'll fare:
-Jimmie Johnson: With the contract extension signed, sealed and delivered for two more seasons, Johnson can get back to what he does best -- ruling the roost in the Chase.
Average finish in last 10 races: 13.5.
The first time at Chase tracks (2015): Won at Dover, 22nd at Loudon.
A sweep of the Monster Mile will be key, and Johnson's only won three of the last four there and 10 in his career. The timing couldn't be better to advance, but he won't last past the Contender round.
-Matt Kenseth: Part of the JGR stable that's been absolutely on fire. It's been 12 years since his only title, but the driver of the No. 20 is poised for a serious run.
Average finish in last 10 races: 11.1. Three wins, but a 42nd at Bristol.
The first time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Charlotte and Martinsville, 39th at Dover.
As hot as all of the Gibbs cars have been, Toyota's got a real shot to have its first Sprint Cup champion driver. Kenseth is the one who has best shot of the group.
Prediction: Championship round.
-Kyle Busch: Easily the best driver story of 2015. Four wins -- in five weeks -- and out for the first 11 races to heal from a broken foot and fractured leg.
Average finish in last 10 races: 7.1
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Loudon, 36th at Dover.
Like Kenseth, as long as Busch gets past Dover in good shape, he'll be fine.
Prediction: Championship round.
-Joey Logano: Made final round a year ago, is on even better roll than Kyle Busch.
Average finish in last 10 races: 6.6. Two wins (Watkins Glen, Bristol), two runner-ups, one third, two fourths.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Martinsville, 33rd at Talladega.
With the roll Logano's been on, it'll be a bit of a shock if he isn't back among the final four again.
Prediction: Out in Contender round, but just barely.
-Kevin Harvick: Defending champion, and had to earn it by winning at Homestead, which is why this Chase playoff system works.
Average finish in last 10: 8.6.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Phoenix, 9th at Charlotte.
Had to do a double-take, but you read it right. Eight of the 10 Chase tracks are repeat stops, and Harvick wasn't outside the top 10 at any of them.
And even more amazing. Harvick's two wins came early in the year, but he's also been runner-up 10 times on the season. I can't imagine him not getting back to the final four.
Prediction: Repeats as Sprint Cup champion.
-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Is this finally the year for Junior Nation to revel in their guy winning a Sprint Cup crown? There's always room to dream.
Average finish in last 10: 9.6. Win at Daytona.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Talladega, 43rd at Phoenix.
A sweep of NASCAR's biggest track will be reason to party, but that's as far as the celebration goes.
Prediction: Out in Eliminator round.
-Kurt Busch: Like little brother Kyle, didn't race the full year. Unlike Kyle, Kurt had to deal with a NASCAR-imposed suspension for legal issues in a case of alleged domestic violence.
While Kyle won in his fifth race back, Kurt won a pole in just his second race of 2015.
Average finish in last 10: 13.0
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Phoenix, 31st at Dover.
Prediction: Out in Challenger round.
-Carl Edwards: He may not do the Twitter thing, but he's got the winning thing down cold. Has memory of 2011 tie with Tony Stewart to eradicate from his soul, and Edwards is in the right place to do it.
Average finish in last 10: 10.8.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Charlotte, 32nd at Talladega.
As stated earlier, Toyota's got a chance to be a Sprint Cup-winning manufacturer. Edwards has the desire to erase some bad history from the memory banks.
Prediction: Championship round.
Due to time restrictions, the lower half of the playoff field gets the quickie capsule analysis.
-Brad Keselowski: 2012 champion with one win on year at Fontana.
Average finish in last 10: 8.1. Only blip: a 29th at Daytona.
First time at Chase tracks (2015); 2nd at Martinsville and Loudon, 22nd at Talladega.
Prediction: Contender round.
-Martin Truex Jr.: Win came at Pocono, only the third of Truex's Sprint Cup career. Not exactly rolling into Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 18.7.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Fifth at Talladega and Charlotte, 12th at Loudon
Prediction: Contender round.
-Denny Hamlin: This is one pick I may be fooled on, and his knee injury plays a part. He was sixth at Richmond, but that track isn't in the Chase.
Average finish in last 10: 9.1
First time at Chase tracks (2015): Win at Martinsville, 41st at Kansas.
Prediction: Eliminator round.
-Jamie McMurray: Has started and finished consistently on year -- 15.1 to 15.0 -- but it's go time now.
Average finish in last 10: 18.0
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 2nd at Phoenix, 26th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round
-Jeff Gordon: It's bad enough one of the legends of NASCAR hasn't won in 2015, but he's at least got one more chance to win his fifth Cup crown to close out an amazing career.
Average finish in last 10: 16.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 4th at Kansas, 31st at Talladega.
Prediction: Eliminator round
-Ryan Newman: One of the most interesting stories of the last three seasons. The guy doesn't win and doesn't lead a ton of laps, but he's near the front on a consistent basis.
Average finish in last 10: 13.9
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Phoenix, 27th at Martinsville.
Prediction: Eliminator round (and if he goes deep again, I apologize in advance).
-Clint Bowyer: Shoved aside the distraction of the closure of Michael Waltrip Racing and put a fifth Toyota in the Chase field. He's looking to make an impression for 2016 and beyond.
Average finish in last 10: 15.6
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 9th at Dover, 34th at Loudon.
Prediction: Challenger round.
-Paul Menard: This year's answer to Aric Almirola despite not winning a race. He's led one lap all season and has one win in 317 Cup starts, so it will be a miracle if he escapes out of the first round.
Average finish in last 10: 18.2.
First time at Chase tracks (2015): 3rd at Talladega, 41st at Texas.
Prediction: Challenger round.
And with that, let the Chase insanity begin.
Followers and comments welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.





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