Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Who's got best shot at Chase?

With all the talk of Kyle Busch's run from physical therapy to the top 30 in points, it obscured the drivers who are trying to get into the mix for the Chase themselves.
Four wins for Busch in seven weeks certainly can't be ignored, but I'm on the lookout for those who are in desperation mode with only four races to run until the top 16 start the Chase to the 2015 Sprint Cup.
Right now, there are five spots open for those with the big doughnut in the win column. Busch is in the Chase, but he's only six points to the good. As we discussed here after the 18 made the field with a runner-up run at Watkins Glen, things can change in a heartbeat.
Busch was 43rd at Michigan in June, but won at Indianapolis with the new high-drag rules package in the cars. With the package set to go for the 2-mile oval in the Irish Hills west of Detroit -- more air ducts are being mandated to counter the heat issues drivers had to deal with previously -- we're officially in go mode.
And since Busch isn't in the most secure position for the Chase, it only adds to the tension for the non-winners making their runs.
Here's a look at the group in positions 12 through 16 who would fill the field via the current standings:
-Jamie McMurray (23 points ahead of 16th): Has only one top-5 run at Michigan, but finished seventh when they raced there in June. Since then, his best finish has been 11th at Sonoma and was 40th at the Glen. Definitely the wrong time to slump, and he may be secretly looking to put a hex on Busch so he slips back out of the top 30 by Richmond.
Hey, a driver can dream.
-Denny Hamlin (+19): Was 11th in the rain at Michigan and followed up with top-5 runs in three of four races (third at Daytona and Kentucky, fifth at Indianapolis), but has finished 22nd and 27th in the last two weeks.
Hamlin does have two wins at Michigan, but an average finish of 22.1 since the June race in 2011.
-Paul Menard (+10): A serious longshot to make the Chase on a win. The Richard Childress Racing driver has led one lap all year, and that makes Ryan Newman's run from last year look like Richard Petty.
Just to clarify that point: Newman led 41 laps, yet missed the championship by a half-second.
Menard was eighth at Michigan in June, but hasn't been in the top 10 since.
-Jeff Gordon (+8): The four-time champ has been shut out of the win column only three times, but it would be depressing if he missed the Chase in his final season.
Gordon has four top 10s in the last six weeks, but the two that weren't were a 42nd at Indy and 41st last week at Watkins Glen. He is the defending champ of this weekend's race.
-Ryan Newman (+1): As discussed previously, Newman isn't a master of leading laps, and you need them if you want to be in Victory Lane. This year's total: 19, none since Kentucky.
Newman's last win was at the 2013 Brickyard 400. He led 45 laps that day and hasn't come remotely close to that number since.
-Clint Bowyer (the man on the bubble): As long as no non-winner sees Victory Lane in the next four weeks, he'll be fine.
Bowyer has rebounded with three straight top 10s since a 34th at Loudon. With Carl Edwards already in the win column, his next closest challenger for that last Chase spot is Aric Almirola, but he's 50 points behind.
Almirola isn't alone in the fight to get into the Chase. Anyone inside the top 30 not named Kyle Busch can change their fate by getting to Victory Lane at Michigan, Bristol, Darlington or Richmond.
Once the field is set, it's all about surviving and advancing. Time to bring it on.
Tom Zulewski has covered many forms of motor sports in his 18-year career in journalism. Followers and comments are welcome on Twitter @Tomzsports.

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