When NASCAR raced at Pocono Raceway eight weeks ago, Martin Truex Jr. was a total beast in the No. 78 Furniture Row Chevrolet. He led 97 of the 160 laps and earned the third win of his Sprint Cup career.
Since then, Truex has slid backward. Although he was third at Michigan the week after his win, the 78 finished 42nd at Sonoma and 38th at Daytona to go with 17th at Kentucky and 12th at New Hampshire.
But the small sign of a rebound returned at Indianapolis last weekend, where Truex finished fourth. So that sets up the logical question for math geeks like me.
Can Truex get the sweep as they head to Pocono for the second run of the season at NASCAR's most unique track?
Sure, it's doable, but sweeps at the triangle -- they've been racing twice a year at Pocono since 1982 -- don't happen very often. Jimmie Johnson (2004), Denny Hamlin (2006) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2014) are the most recent to pull it off. It can happen again with Truex, but don't bank on it unless we get a perfect storm of these elements coming together:
-Chevrolet has won the last six Pocono races. Joey Logano was the last non-Chevy to reach Victory Lane when he won in the No. 20 Toyota from the pole for Joe Gibbs Racing in the June race in 2012.
-In the last decade at Pocono (21 races total), six winners have started from the pole: Hamlin (twice - his 2006 sweep), Kasey Kahne (June 2008), Tony Stewart (June 2009), Logano and Johnson (June 2013).
-In the same time frame, seven have started from well outside the top 10 and won, including Carl Edwards (29th in June 2005) and Jeff Gordon (27th in August 2012).
Edwards holds the Pocono record as the driver who came from the furthest back in the field to win.
Even with the possibilities for Truex, we can't ignore the elephant in the room, and it's clearly Kyle Busch, who is an interplanetary marvel with his Superman-like comeback.
Nine starts, four wins, three in a row.
Busch was ninth in June and didn't lead a lap. He got as high as fourth at lap 130, but faded back.
Can Rowdy extend his hot streak? The math says it's not likely. In 21 career Pocono starts, Busch has only four top-5 finishes -- none since August 2011 -- and an average finish of 18.3.
Then again, we didn't think he'd be on the roll he's on to get Chase-eligible coming in. Right now (breathe, haters...breathe!) Busch still has to erase a 23-point deficit on 30th-place Justin Allgaier. The last of the deficit could be wiped out this weekend. Or a big-time slip-up could happen.
Busch lost his engine at this race a year ago and finished 42nd. He was 43rd -- dead last -- at Michigan after a wreck in June.
Truex, meanwhile, didn't have much success at Pocono prior to his win in June. In 18 previous starts, he led a total of 11 laps and finished in the top 5 twice. Not good.
If you're picking your fantasy racing team for this weekend, here's some simple advice before qualifying happens tomorrow.
Save yourself the headache. Choose someone else in the field
Tom Zulewski welcomes followers and comments on Twitter @Tomzsports. He'll be a guest on the NASCAR Happy Hour Garage this weekend at nascarhappyhour.com
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